What’s the deal with baseball, anyway?
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I have to go pick up my kid, so this will have to wait until at least tomorrow, but some of the things MLB to Raleigh posts prove to be hard to fact-check. For instance, the X account says that “According to Fortune, MLB’s definition of ‘Designated Market Area’ is classified as a 150-mile radius.” But there’s no link to the story, and when I Google it, all the relevant hits are from MLB to Raleigh itself. Google AI helpfully notes that “However, this is not the generally accepted definition of a DMA, which is a geography defined by Nielsen” and “One source says MLB uses a 150-mile radius to define a market for potential expansion, which is a much broader definition than Nielsen’s. This definition is being used to argue that the Raleigh, NC area has a large enough market for a baseball team.”
I’m sure there’s a perfectly reasonable explanation for all of this stuff, but fact-checking is good, and it should be easy, not hard to fact-check stuff, and this is literally the first and only thing I tried to fact-check today, and I’ve already hit a wall.
Okay, so let’s go literally one post earlier on the Facebook account, which says this: “This Saturday, MLB will host the Reds vs Braves game @ Bristol Motor Speedway in Bristol, TN. It will break MLB attendance records, and the media will use its success to argue that it proves MLB expansion belongs in Nashville, TN.”
Will “the media” do this? Maybe! It’s hard to know that with certainty in advance, though, especially since “the media” is, in fact, a disparate constellation of entities that directly compete with each other, not a blob. When someone is trying to preemptively discredit journalism, writ large, before reporters can write a story that is expected to contradict their preferred narrative, you know you’re dealing with an untrustworthy source of information.
I know this doesn’t directly answer your question, but I really need to pick up my kid. We’ll have to continue this another time. I appreciate the question and am not trying to blow it off.
Oddly - Raleigh is closer to Bristol, than Nashville.
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I had to get some validation on this claim which I expect others to consider as well, so I’m sharing my fact check. 
Bristol, TN is closer to Raleigh, NC than it is to Nashville, TN.
Driving Distance
- The driving distance between Bristol, TN and Raleigh, NC is approximately 243 miles.
- The driving distance between Bristol, TN and Nashville, TN is approximately 291 miles.
Therefore, Raleigh, NC is closer to Bristol, TN by about 48 miles.
And so, I’d love for there to be an attendance record broken! Better data for Raleigh!
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My brother in Christ, you just wrote a full page about some bullshit that doesn’t matter. Go touch some grass. Actually, everyone here should go touch some grass.
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I encourage everyone to go and dig into every piece of media, every single quote and all the details you can find from the other cities and other bids.
We are doing that every single day and we are sharing it on social. Nashville is really the only east coast competitor at the moment. With Rays staying in Tampa, Orlando is out.
Rob Manfred (commissioner) has stated he wants to expand with one team in the east and one in the west
Both SLC and Portland have pros and cons, but that’s their war to fight out West. But let’s focus on Nashville, since that is who we are really up against.
I will directly compare Nashville and Raleigh, showing where Nashville is outpacing Raleigh. Will that help you feel like we’re being more objective?
(Check means it’s better than Raleigh, X means it’s worse than Raleigh, = means it’s the same.)
NASHVILLE MARKET
MLB DMA rank (pop within 150 miles): 
Population with 60 miles:
Media Market:
State population:
Top 50 Media Markets in State:
Median Age: Tie
Median Income:
Tourists by total #:
Tourists by money spent: 
Ownership Group led by legitimate billionaire:
Public Government Support (vocal):
Large Community Support Group: 
Stadium Financing Plan: (neither has one public)
Land Deal for Stadium Site: (neither has one public)
There you go. Now, I want to shift the burden of proof to you.
Which of these items would you like to see the source data for? Which do we have wrong or which have we exaggerated? What other data points do you feel like we need to add (that are measurable)?
Also, I’ve found no politicians at any level (state, city, county) in Nashville or TN saying they want to work with an ownership group to fund an MLB stadium.
Their ownership group is led by real estate developer John Loar. He is not a billionaire (per the NYPost article on the ‘behind the scenes’ piece on their bid from 2 years ago.
In this article, they were asked if they have a billionaire investor, in which they answer ‘No.’ And then go on to say they don’t think they need one. (Not sure how that would work as they don’t explain.)
They have a mayor who has outright said he doesn’t think Nashville has the ingredients right now for MLB. Going on to say that they are not intending to publicly finance one."
If you can find a quote or an interview with any elected official saying differently, we’d love to see that.
Nashville did a stadium rendering an the river when they launched that everyone seems to keep sharing…
The reason you don’t see THEM sharing that anymore is because the new NFL stadium was approved right next door and that area is now part of the entertainment district type build-out they are moving forward with (The ‘East Bank Development’ done by Fallon - who has done work here in NC).
So they have moved on to looking at different land. Specifically, land out by Tennessee State. However, the community doesn’t seem to like that idea either (as explained by a local writer who is covering it).
So what does Nashville have? They have a partnership with the Negro League museum, promising to name the team after a Negrol League team if they land the franchise.
But they also used to say they were going to be the first ‘minority-majority owned team in MLB’, however that is no longer on their website, nor is it a talking point they make anymore.
The only things anyone can point to is Rob Manfred listing Nashville in an interview 6 years ago. He also listed Charlotte (which at this point, we’d argue can be substituted for Raleigh)… but he’s also been public that he has never officially listed cities for expansion.
Then there was an article in The Athletic where the players voted Nashville as their pick for the next team (they don’t get an actual vote in real life). And then there are baseball writers who written articles about Nashville being a frontrunner (but none of them have any listed sources, nor do they make any argument for the details of why they believe that).
Here is what David is referring to from Bob Nightengale’s MASSIVE piece about MLB at the All-Star Break
. What he had to say about expansion was delivered in one bullet point below.
Meanwhile, here is what the Commissioner said publicly just 2 weeks ago
…
“In terms of expansion,” he said, “open book. You know what? People who want baseball should participate in the expansion process when we start that process, and I think by being wide open, with no predeterminations as to where it’s going, we’re going to end up with the best locations if we want to expand.”
So using FACTS and using SOURCES FROM OTHER MARKETS… make the case that Nashville is ahead of Raleigh in the expansion process or that Nashville is a better market for MLB. (We are open to that conversation, we just honest-to-God do not believe it is legitimate.)
I find it frusterating that people believe we are exaggerating data or Raleigh’s chances. I think those people need to step back and wonder if they’ve actually underestimated their regions sheer size and strength for far too long. But again, open to exploring if my hypothesis is incorrect.
Again, sorry for the length here and I hope this is helpful content for the thread to really understand that we are not blowing smoke up your a** with our reporting. We feel as if we’ve been far more thorough and data driven with with our approach than any other market. And if you still think we are messing with data/info to make Raleigh look better, we’d love to discuss specific expamples so we can be more fair and accurate.
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I trust this will all become really, really interesting once some of the details from behind the scenes Lou has been holding onto start to be disclosed by Doug Warf and team.
For now, the speculation is fun and Raleigh checks a lot more boxes than most of the other markets the traditional media has been mentioning.
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@Loup20 I think you have convincing facts and data for most of us. This topic keeps getting sucked into a black hole of negativity by a former-lawyer-now-PR-writer-person who evidently has a glass-is-half-empty worldview. It’s exhausting. I mean those NIMBY points and arguments against are like Livable Raleigh version of MLB.
Thanks @Loup20 for all your effort behind the scenes.
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Appreciate all Loup brings but at this stage with so little meat on the bone and nothing of any real substance to talk about I like hearing the contrarian viewpoints as well.
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Thanks, and that’s totally understandable. Our stance would be that Raleigh has spent the past 20 years living with the idea that MLB made zero sense here and was destined for Charlotte (if at all in NC). MLB having a shot in Raleigh WAS the 'contrarian viewpoint" when this thing started.
I think a major marker of success is the fact that the pendulum seems to have swung in the opposite direction, where the ‘outsiders’ or ‘contrarian view’ is that it doesn’t work.
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Wow, that’s long. Since this thread started six years ago, I’ve ever once said Raleigh can’t or won’t get a team. And I’ve been consistent that Raleigh could support an MLB team. So could Nashville. And Portland, Salt Lake City, Montreal, Charlotte, Oakland, Vancouver, Austin/San Antonio, and probably more places. Baseball is thriving. It could succeed in all of those places. Heck, the A’s are trying to move to Las Vegas, which is probably a dicier market than any of those places. And, yes, MLB would be thrilled to get bids from every one of those cities (not all of them will, obviously), all the better to extract leverage and play cities off each other. So, sure, MLB would love to get a bid from Raleigh. And Nashville, etc. And, yes, Nashville’s bid could absolutely come undone over the stadium issue. So could Raleigh’s.
Onto the emojis. There is at least one crucial factor that is conspicuously un-emoji-ed, but for now let’s work with the emojis we have and turn them into data, which is easy to find and even easier to type and link to.
The first five emojis all basically say the same thing: The Triangle has a bigger population base than Nashville. This is true. Some of these metrics are useful (media market) some are silly (“top 50 media markets in state”), but they’re all making the same point. But the differences in size isn’t large.
Combined Statistical Area
#31 Raleigh–Durham–Cary, NC 2,439,501
#32 Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro, TN 2,402,290 (Source)
Designated Market Area (A DMA is is a proprietary geography defined by Nielsen, by the way. That’s what a DMA is.)
Raleigh #22
1,345,840 TV households (Google AI estimates 2,790,330 in population).
Nashville #26
1,199,400 TV households (Google AI estimates 2,455,890 in population)
Yes, the Triangle’s population is larger, but it’s not a huge difference. But I need to pause here: You claim that Fortune magazine reports that MLB is using a 150-mile radius as a key metric. But no one else has reported that, Fortune magazine provides minimal coverage of sports, this misstates the definition of a DMA, makes little sense (a lot of teams are less than 150 miles apart) and when I try to find this on Google, all the links come back to you. Do you have a link, or even a news reporter you’d like to credit for their work?
Raleigh’s median income is higher, yes, and also works in their favor. Let’s look at tourism. The red-green emoji combo suggest that this is roughly a draw. But we can use real numbers, not emojis. All numbers are self-reported by Visit Raleigh and Visit Nashville and are for 2023.
Wake County: 18.5 million visitors, $3.2 billion spent (I can’t find data for just Raleigh)
Nashville: 16.8 million visitors, $10.78 billion spent
So Nashville had more three times as much tourism revenue than Wake County as a whole. That’s a massive difference. The emojis don’t really capture that difference. And citing the actual numbers wasn’t hard.
Here’s the crucial data point that’s missing: Businesses headquartered in each city. This is probably Nashville’s biggest strength and Raleigh’s biggest weakness. And in the interview with Brian Fork that you posted, he even admits that this is perceived to be Raleigh’s biggest weakness. (9:48 mark). He obviously said he doesn’t see any reason why you can’t make it work, but even he’s admitting that the critique is out there.
Five Fortune 500 companies are based in and around Nashville: No. 61 - HCA Healthcare, No. 111 - Dollar General, No. 244 - Delek US Holdings, No. 293 - Tractor Supply, No. 330 - Community Health Systems, plus the US headquarters of Japanese-owned Bridgestone. (That link is a year old, but I don’t think anything has changed much.) For the Triangle, it’s three: IQVIA Holdings No. 282, First Citizens Bank No. 293, Advance Auto Parts No. 389) If anyone has a subscription and can analyze Fortune 1000 companies, or even further, that’d be great. I suspect that the wider you cast the net, the more Nashville’s advantage grows.
I actually agree with Brian Fork: none of this is necessarily fatal to Raleigh’s chances. But an objective analysis is that the Triangle has the edge in population and income, but Nashville has some massive advantages in tourism and corporate support. But obviously you have no incentive to talk up Nashville’s strengths or Raleigh’s weaknesses. That’s why your social media account has literally hundreds of posts finding new ways to make the exact same point about population, and, what, exactly zero posts analyzing corporate support or tourism revenues? Population is nice, that certainly helps Raleigh, but it’s not the only consideration, or even the most important one. Again: MLB is trying to move a team from Oakland to Las Vegas. So clearly population is not the main factor.
I do want to come back to the other stuff even the stuff in bold face and all-caps (whoa) and graphics to say things that really should have been text, I really do, but this is already a lot, and there is so much left. Another day. But two things really quickly: First, Nashville has at this moment, the best organized operation. Here’s their leadership chart. Now, how much work are Baseball Hall of Famer Tony LaRussa and former U.S. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist really doing? I don’t know. But it’s certainly helpful that they have a lengthy roster of big-name MLB executives advising them and a board of directors made up of local luminaries and legal, financial teams, etc. Serious question: Does Dundon’s group have anything even remotely comparable to this? There’s still time to do all that. But it’s disingenuous to say that all Nashville has is a connection to the Negro League Museum. That’s just not true.
Also, other owners have eyed Nashville as a relocation market. One then-co-owner of the Baltimore Orioles filed a lawsuit alleging his brother was trying to seize control of the team and relocate it to Nashville. Chicago White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf threatened to move the team to Nashville before selling it to a co-owner of Nashville FC. So the interest in Nashville by MLB is there. So far, Raleigh hasn’t seen anything like that. And, yeah, they lost their preferred stadium site, but Raleigh doesn’t have a stadium site, either, so everyone is on even footing there. Yes, there was more, and I’m not dodging it. I’m just spent for today. This was a lot.
@Spero There is great wisdom in your words. (I write quickly as a vocation, fwiw, so it looks longer than it actually takes.) I want you to know, sincerely, that I appreciate this, and I did go get my kid, and we spent the last two afternoons swimming (the grass is hot right now) and having a great time and not worrying at all about this.
@BoyHowdy Attacks against me personally have no place in this community. They’re not in keeping with what this forum is about. I disagree with Lou about some things, but at least he’s trying to make a case for Raleigh, not bashing me on a personal level. The only thing in this thread that doesn’t belong here is this kind of personal invective. And, by the way, I was a journalist and the editor in chief of a newspaper for a lot longer than I was either a lawyer or in PR-adjacent work.
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The only thing about this that I have to point out is that your responses to @Loup20 - whether you intend this or not - come off INCREDIBLY passive aggressive if not downright pretentious. So just in case you are truly not meaning to appear that way, I’m just telling you man… that’s how it reads 99% of the time in your retorts and responses. So that may be why you’re seeing some pushback and folks turning on you. You’re coming off as a heel in this thread big time, regardless of how much reasonable doubt you may have about this whole thing.
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Especially when its like a 11-paragraph response that basically reinforces the point that its somehow trying to argue against??
Whatevs. It’s just tiring at this point. We’ve heard all the same data and quotes repeated over and over at this point.
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Yall should have a debate over zoom and we can all vote on who wins.
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Additionally, this is a “Bring MLB to Raleigh” thread on a Raleigh forum. Content is going to be slightly biased towards Raleigh’s case. In the end this decision is up to billionaires way outside our social circles. It’s just fun to scheme up possibilities.
If someone is leading the charge on pushing Raleigh’s case, we should show support and appreciation for all the time they are spending to organize materials and events.
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Petty.
Raleigh CSA = 5k square miles
Nashville CSA = 9k square miles
Makes zero sense to use that stat if what you’re trying to measure is density of population within driving distance (Can they fill a stadium 81 nights a year?)
That is why we’ve been using 60-mile radius as a true apples to apples, and why we’ve begun to use [the ‘Designated Market Area’ metric that MLB explained to Fortune] (Sports fans drop up to $20,000 to see their favorite teams, athletes in person | Fortune) (150-mile radius) which we’ve linked on every post we’ve made publicly about it and which seems to be totally different from Neilsen’s DMA definition.
Davidson County IS Nashville. They are one and the same. Nashville-Davidson County has a consolidated city-county government. So the Wake County stat vs the Nashville stat works fine (we’ve explained this many times over social media to the greater audience.)
Yes, Nashville’s tourism spend is higher as I showed. And it’s higher because they have things tourist spend money on with the main two being country music bars and NFL football. Raleigh getting MLB would help make this closer.
The point here is that Raleigh/Wake County is bringing more people than everyone’s favorite bachelorette party destination (that should blow your mind); they just need better ways to monetize.
You are hiding behind the ‘Corporate sponsorship will be a major hurdle’ hypothetical. But as you’ve heard Brian explain, they do not believe it will be an issue. And that is a whole different post, but don’t confuse filling suites with getting corporate sponsors.
Smaller stadium, fewer suites, more group seating, and public VIP subscription sections/lounges. This is happening all over baseball and pro sports. They are no longer targeting just massive companies, they are targeting the mid-tier emerging market companies, which we have a ton of. These groups need to be semi-local as you are talking about companies buying seats/sections/subscriptions to host employees/clients.
Sponsorship (stadium nameing rights, signs in the outfield/behind home plate, on jerseys) does not need to be tied specifically to the Triangle region and could easily target companies from all over the state or country. Yes, even Charlotte.
For example let’s look at Raleigh’s other pro team… The Hurricanes.
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Jersey patch is Nucor (HQ in Charlotte)
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Lenovo has naming rights to the stadium but their HQ is in Hong Kong (US HQ is in Morrisville,NC, but you don’t list them as a F500 company, so i guess you’re asking for main HQs)
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Anheuser-Busch InBev - HQ in Belgium (or US HQ in STL)
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Gatorade - HQ in Chicago
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Invisilign - HQ in Arizona
ETC
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And with that, I’m going to be done going back and forth for a few days. I have actual work to do.
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I have actual work to do, too, and I am done with the back and forth for a few days, too. But we’ll both be back at some point. So maybe we can tackle this one when we get back. 
I appreciate your posting the link to the Fortune story. But it’s also really odd in context. The story doesn’t mention expansion at all or suggest that MLB uses this as a metric for expansion candidates. And the point of the story is that people are coming from outside this radius, not inside of it. It adds nothing new to the population analysis. The fact that people travelled and attended a game (but not necessarily for the game, as I myself have done in several MLB cities) suggests that the tourism numbers are particularly important for MLB.
I’m not “hiding behind” anything. I’m not even sure what that means. I am simply pointing this out as relevant information. And, yes, I believe you that the guy running the Canes’ operations does not personally believe this will be an issue. Impartial observers may have more skepticism than he does.
Anyway, we’ll both be back at some point. This thread isn’t going anywhere.
@Jake Duly noted. I’m trying not to come off that way, so I appreciate the feedback. My point about the edits, for instance, honestly wasn’t to be petty. The article was long and seemed to be getting longer, and it’s genuinely hard to tell if that’s just copy editing, or if substantive content is being added or removed. But I do appreciate the constructive feedback, sincerely.
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In all seriousness, if this should ever get to the point that there is an actual stadium subsidy proposal on the table, I would be positively delighted to have a virtual or in-person debate with Lou or anybody else about the merits of this, with any sort of neutral moderator. I’m obviously not afraid of a debate. I’d be very happy to make that happen. That’s a great suggestion!