LOL they’re still pushing Charlotte. Meanwhile not a single person in Charlotte has expressed interest nor even ability to bring a team.
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MLB on Fox is just trying to get clicks. No one over there is doing any real research.
Stephen Nesbitt of The Athletic is the guy who, right now, is digging into all the expansion markets. We’ve spoken to him as has Tom’s team, and he’s confirmed that he’s talked to all the markets and is about to release an ‘update’ on all the serious markets (next week).
If his ‘realignment’ post means anything, it seems as if he’s of the belief that it’s Raleigh or Nashville.
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Besides the nod to Raleigh, I prefer Nesbitt’s idea; not only does it make sense geographically (divisional teams are close to each other), but almost all existing teams maintain their current AL/NL alignment. Realigning the leagues is gonna piss off a lot of traditionalists, and this plan looks like it would minimize those moves.
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Braves switching to the AL would be a burn it down moment if ever there was one.
Nolan McLean from Willow Springs NC had his first MLB start tonight pitching for the NY Mets . His win tonight was The Mets only second rookie to win their first start.
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I like this proposed realignment in general, but it would bode well for future playoff aspirations to be in a pretty soft NL South.
The visitors stat where Raleigh has more annually than Nashville just amazes me. How can this be and what are these people doing?
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I too was wondering why. Here’s what ChatGPT says…
Great question — it definitely seems surprising at first glance. The key is how “visitors” are counted and the nature of each city’s tourism mix.
1. Definitions of “Visitor”
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Raleigh (Wake County numbers)
The 18.5 million count includes all visitors, not just tourists. That means:-
Leisure travelers (weekend trips, sports, festivals, etc.)
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Business travelers (conferences at Raleigh Convention Center, RTP visitors, state government work trips)
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Day-trippers (anyone who drives into Wake County for a day to shop, eat, attend a game, etc.)
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Nashville (Metro numbers)
The 16.8 million reported is largely tourists staying overnight or for leisure/convention purposes. It doesn’t include the same volume of short day-trippers or surrounding-county commuters. Their reporting is more focused on hotel-based visitation and economic impact.
So Raleigh’s “visitation” is a wider net — it includes lots of local/regional drive-in trips that Nashville doesn’t necessarily classify as “visitors.”
2. Raleigh’s Built-In Visitor Base
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State Capital & RTP hub
Raleigh brings in millions of business/government visitors annually (legislative sessions, state government, and companies in Research Triangle Park). -
Universities & sports
NC State, Duke, UNC, Hurricanes NHL games, NCAA tournaments — these pump constant day-tripper traffic. -
Regional day trips
People from eastern/central NC come to Raleigh for shopping (Crabtree, Fenton, downtown), concerts at PNC Arena, and cultural attractions (museums, NC State Fair).
These create a steady stream of visitors who may not think of themselves as “tourists,” but they still get counted.
3. Nashville’s Tourism Is Heavier on Overnight / Leisure
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Nashville is a top national leisure destination (country music, Broadway, bachelorette parties, conventions).
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Visitors to Nashville usually stay multiple nights and spend a lot more per trip.
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That’s why Nashville’s spending numbers ($10.5+ billion) dwarf Raleigh’s ($3.2 billion) despite fewer visitors on paper.
So while Raleigh “counts more heads,” Nashville makes much more money per head.
4. Apples-to-Oranges
It’s not that Raleigh is more popular — it’s measurement methodology:
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Raleigh’s “visitor” = anyone crossing the county line for a day or more.
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Nashville’s “visitor” = primarily people traveling in for overnight leisure or conventions.
If Raleigh only reported overnight tourist trips, its number would shrink a lot compared to Nashville.
Bottom line:
Raleigh gets counted as having more “visitors” because of a broader definition that includes business travelers and day-trippers, while Nashville’s numbers are narrower but represent true tourism. Nashville is the much bigger destination — which is why its tourism economy is over 3x larger than Raleigh’s despite a smaller raw visitor count.
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That great. So it’s a bogus number and paints Raleigh in a better light than the reality. But not dissimilar to how Nashville’s huge ‘metro’ /MSA city limits boundary paints it in a better light against Raleigh….so it all balances out I suppose.
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This feels like a problem with Nashville’s tourism methodology more than our shortcoming. Someone visiting Wake County overnight is spending money somehow. I’d bet it’s true our business community plus friends and family are collectively going to more than make up for where we trail behind Nashville in traditional leisure and nightlife tourism.
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It’s worth noting that MLB cannot unilaterally force a team to switch leagues. In 1998 the Brewers volunteered to move to the NL after the Royals declined to do so. In 2011 MLB gained some leverage over the Astros when Drayton McLane sold the team to Jim Crane. Crane agreed to let MLB move the Astros to the AL as a condition for MLB to approve the sale.
@Loup20 This is why MLB needs to add a team in the western half of the U.S. Unless the Rockies can be persuaded to move or the Monforts sell the team in the interim, MLB needs to put a western team in the AL to get to four. And in response to your Facebook post, yes, they just put the Rockies in the Central with the Cubs, Cardinals, and Brewers, and the other eight NL teams are all in the Eastern Time Zone. I like and respect Stephen’s reporting tremendously, and I do agree that I find it interesting and significant that he has Raleigh as the second-most-likely location for an eastern expansion team after Nashville. But I think it’s unlikely that the Rockies swap leagues, and especially unlikely that the Rays switch leagues. But I will be very eager to read Stephen’s story. I’m sure it will be very well researched. (And, yes, a lot of stories out there about realignment are just low-value speculation.)
The upshot of SLC/Portland going to the AL is of course that the other expansion team would go to the NL. Assuming it’s a team in the southeast, I think it’s very likely that team would be in a division with Atlanta, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati. That leaves you with a division of New York, Philadelphia, Washington, and Miami, which pairs beautifully with an AL division of New York, Boston, Baltimore, and Tampa Bay.
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Is a possible relocation of the Rays definitely put to bed? How does new ownership change the fact that Tampa nor St Pete say they have any appetite to fund a new stadium?
The new story from The Atlantic is out, and it is every bit as good as I knew it would be. This is, hands down, the best analysis of the current expansion situation that’s been published. It’s behind a paywall because good journalism is worth paying for, but you can absolutely get a trial subscription and read it.
The article analyzes six possible expansion cities, three in the east (of which Raleigh is one), and three in the west (although Austin is in the Central Time Zone, same as Nashville). “Though Nashville and Salt Lake City are considered frontrunners by many in the industry,” there’s still a lot uncertainly, and Nesbitt notes a few other cities that could be viable candidates. Here’s the lede about Raleigh:
“When Tom Dundon is willing to put his financial might behind a project, it should be taken seriously.” Fair enough.
@rucker It’s not definitively put to bed, which is part of why there is still no timeline for MLB to kick off the expansion process. But there’s a lot of optimism that the new owners will get the stadium situation resolved, ideally in Tampa rather than St. Pete, which is part of why the expansion talk is starting to ramp up. Elected officials in Tampa are in fact keen on funding a stadium now that Stu Sternberg is gone, and that’s a much better home for the Rays anyway. Either way, MLB really wants to have a team in this area, so odds are good that the Rays stay put.
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Good article. I have not heard as much about Orlando as a possibility. It was interesting to read about them. Both existing Florida teams have struggled with attendance, so it seems like a longshot that MLB would place a third franchise in the state.
I’m rooting for Raleigh, and I liked how explicitly the article talked about the advantages of Raleigh over Charlotte, which still seems to get a lot of mentions by fans and media.
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Nice to see our own @Loup20 interviewed in the piece in The Athletic! 
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arent there some rezoning mixed use case approvals just short way up blue ridge road? condusive for MLB in this part of town?
disclosure..im a raeigh native. ive been to the country music museum in nashville….it was ok. i can jog on greenways in raleigh, i can bike to crankarm and get a beer…as well as several other places…i can get tapas in DT raleigh…NC State has a good Baselball team…NC is the 11th largerst GDP in the US…what else is needed?
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Man, I love Raleigh and I am from this beautiful city! I remember Raleigh’s nickname was sleepy capital of the south, but not anymore.
65,000 residents, now 480,000 plus! Loved The Raleigh Capitals Minor League Team.
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Orlando is being listed because they have money and land.
But honestly, we aren’t considering them competition for expansion.
Their play is to land the Rays if this new ownership group can’t get a stadium deal in place in Tampa. However, if that were to happen, they would become competition with us for the Rays.
If Rays figure it out in Tampa then there is now way MLB passes on Raleigh or Nashville to give a team to Orlando.
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That makes a lot of sense. Relocations are pretty unpopular, but a Tampa to Orlando relocation seems like it might not be quite as bad b/c the two cities are less than 100 miles apart and existing fans could still conceivably go to games on occasion.
However, I just wasn’t seeing any way that MLB would triple down on Florida when the two existing franchises have had attendance and other issues for years.
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