Lol.
Common numerator as well.
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This Wednesday, Durham’s MPO will hear a presentation from GoTriangle about what it would financially and strategically take to make commuter rail happen. And thanks to inflation and wage/supply shortages, it ain’t pretty.
Before we start, keep in mind that we have two new updates that changes the context of this conversation:
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Durham County’s updated draft transit plan that sets aside money for potentially funding the commuter rail project (which is nice because their commitment to this sounded sketchy at times)
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Out of the 800k jobs projected to be in the Triangle by 2050, nearly half of them -350,000- are expected to be near the rail corridor. This is on top of 27% of the region’s legally binding income-restricted housing and 30% of our region’s jobs that already exist there today.
As GoTriangle gets to the point where decision-makers can choose to continue with or kill this project, they realized some additional painful truths:
The colors presumably go from green (easier to implement) to red (difficult). I assume this has to do with schedule conflicts with freight rail and the number of railroad crossings, but there’s no additional written information.
This, plus updated cost projections, puts us in an ugly place where we could have to decide from three less-than-ideal positions: we either decide this project isn’t worth it…
…go with the entire rail line (even when the expected cost has doubled, right as we’ve barely found a way to scrape together the funding for the original cost)…
…or start off with a shorter, partial service that at least gives one of the fastest-growing parts of the Triangle the option to be free from cars.
GoTriangle expects to receive feedback from elected leaders and other critical stakeholders, and then go back to the drawing board for how they want to organize their budget and ask for help from the federal government. Once that’s done (maybe this fall or winter?), we’ll see if they think it’s worth it to continue forward.
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What’s really obvious to me here is that a regional rail such as this has the ability to particularly transform and elevate Garner from near the bottom of pecking order to near the top of it if it were to fully realize its potential as a major stop along the route and only 2 stops away from downtown Raleigh.
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Could someone help a colorblind fella out here? I can’t tell what color the Garner segment is.
If it’s greenish, it seems possible for Wake to pay for an RTP-Cary-Raleigh-Garner segment.
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Of course. Ranked in order from feasible to challenging:
- Raleigh - Garner - Auburn (dark green)
- Auburn - Clayton (light green)
- Cary - RTP-Ellis Rd. (yellow)
- Cary - Raleigh (orange)
- Ellis Rd. - Durham (red)
So Raleigh-Garner is the easiest segment to implement (and ridership projections actually show Garner, not Durham, as the area with the second-highest estimated ridership). I guess the idea is that everything west of Raleigh is a pain, and they just wanted to present an option that gets something running.
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I think phased is the way to go here. Start with Garner to Raleigh: it’s an easy win and builds demand. If it goes well, look into extensions to Clayton and Cary/RTP.
I’d imagine the whole route is still doable with enough public and political will, but I think that will is going to follow the existence of a successful service. If Durham gets envious, they’ll find a way to get it extended to them. We just need to get something going here to combat sprawl. And @John’s right: there are plenty examples across the globe of development following new rail lines, so Garner could very well become the new Triangle hotbed for smart suburban development.
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I really don’t want to be a downer here, but if we’re phasing intercity rail, to me it begs these questions:
- Why not take GoRaleigh/Wake’s investment dollars here and move it to BRT so that we can connect DT Garner to DTR via BRT instead of a oddly short rail segment?
- If we’re watering down intercity rail between Clayton and Durham, why not work with NCDOT/NCRR/Amtrak to make these improvements to the Piedmont train that already is up and running???
It seems like we have several luke-warm initiatives that need consolidation into a better unified modality. Either go heavier on BRT, or go heavier on Raleigh - Charlotte intercity rail
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Hm, I think a big part is the development piece. Rail feels gamechanging, yuppies ride trains, developers feel confident building TOD around train stations.
BRT doesn’t have the same splash and would need a big marketing push to get residents, especially in a suburb, to ride a bus.
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I think the big question is what you bigger priority is: do you want a regional rail system as a way to get around more reliably, or do you want a regional rail system as a means to get more development? Both of these things obviously beget each other, but which do you prefer when those two goals oppose each other?
Just like the Fed and recessions, I think it’s a self-fulfilling prophecy when people say BRT won’t be a good catalyst for TODs. And the best way to break that cycle, in my mind, is to prioritize the direct, first-order effects that we have direct control over (e.g. BRTs help move people) over indirect, higher-order effects that we can manage after we get the basics right (e.g. BRTs encourage development because of it moving people).
I think the true optimal solution is, like @evan.j.bost (and @orulz in the past) suggested, to have a single statewide rail operator like TER services managed by France’s counterpart to American states, and make it run regional and intercity rail services that integrate with local buses/BRTs. But I imagine that means the NCRR, state, counties, and local transit agencies need a radically different way to work with each other -which requires money, workers, political will, and at least a decade of time.
Especially with how we’re growing now, I don’t think we can afford to let the perfect become the enemy of the good.
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It’s hard to get these departments involved, especially Amtrak. Private projects seem to be the best way to go about projects like this. I believe the Brightline in Miami is a good example of a well planned regional rail project.
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The only reason I included Amtrak is because from what I understand the Piedmont is already a partnership between Amtrak, NCRR, and NCDOT.
If the pandemic had never happened, I believe we were supposed to be up to 10 trains daily between Charlotte and Raleigh, which would satisfy a lot of commuting possibilities between Raleigh, Cary, and Durham.
I live 3 miles from Raleigh Union station and I’m about to be working a half mile from the cary station, So I will be using the Piedmont train with my bike as a commuting option, But because of the limited service now I’ll depart Raleigh at 6:30 a.m. and return at 6:15 p.m.
The problem with expanding Piedmont service is that there wouldn’t be a southbound train coming into Raleigh in the morning unless a train originated in Charlotte and left very early.
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TOD doesn’t really matter with regional rail because the stations are spaced so far apart*. Regardless of the mode, downtown Garner is not a desirable origination or destination at the moment.
I love rail, and have always been very excited about commuter rail. But if we’re going to water it down and only connect Raleigh with a very non-destination for the foreseeable future, My vote is to just spend the money on bike infrastructure lol
*Clarification: TOD corridors
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Yeah, but I don’t ride bikes 
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Probably because it’s too dangerous/uncomfortable!!
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In fairness, Raleigh is the destination, not Garner. And I anticipate that Auburn Station will be a park-and-ride, so this will essentially provide Johnston County with its first “transit connection” to downtown (unless the Southern BRT extension beats them to it, which is highly probable).
Like I said, we have to start somewhere. If we’re going to develop regional rail in the Triangle (which we absolutely should), NCRR is the easiest place to start. If we can’t do the whole thing at once, then phasing is a reasonable approach. I’d be very surprised if a second phase didn’t break ground before Garner-Raleigh even goes into service.
Keep in mind, in order to get that initial segment into operation, you’re still going to have to sort out rolling stock, station standards, a maintenance and storage yard, and so on. In other words, you’re knocking out a significant chunk of work that goes into developing a new rail line. It’s much easier to extend a line than it is to spin up a new project from scratch, so think of a Garner-Raleigh service as groundwork.
I see this as politically feasible and good for generating demand. I’m admittedly disappointed by the findings, but I’ll be far more disappointed if we don’t get anything out of this at all. Keep it simple, start in Wake County, and we’ll build out from there.
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It’s a good point that the construction will take so long, extension planning would likely overlap…if it gets extended…
Again not to be a downer, but this is a bad omen IMO.
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Your employer will be grateful for your ~12 hr work days. 
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Probably going to space those days out by at least a week haha.
But it does knock out about 8 miles of biking, social interaction, and a morning coffee/pastry that my car commute doesn’t offer. 
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I can make a strong case for Garner putting up less resistance to re-invention via a strong node of TOD at its stop on a regional rail. It’s the very fact that the town isn’t as desirable as Cary or Clayton that would ultimately result in it taking the giant leap.
At the same that Garner would be connected, it would represent an opportunity to elevate the town’s downtown from being nearly next to nothing right now to a full blown vibrant community that could mimic North Hills.
Imagine being able to take a commuter train from a place like that to downtown in a matter of 10 minutes?
The track parallels Main Street and Garner Road. Just look at this gigantic land opportunity just north of that location.
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It never did that’s why at least if Light Rail isn’t possible we could work a tram, you go to Austin which I’ll be visiting at the end of the month growth and development have exploded among the line. The watering down is a start and while it seems small, if you look at it we could have some form of rail before 2030, also I think a lot of yall have forgotten about the Fayetteville-Raleigh Commuter Rail in the works.
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