I’m fairly sure this is a short term, less than 1 year, event. Should not have much effect a year from now.
JMHO - can slap me if wrong next March.
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History would suggest, no, that is not what will happen at all.
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I’ll take my chances on the US economy eventually coming back. Worked for me in 87 and 08. History is on my side.
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It will clearly always come back. It’s a matter if you are able to hang on until it does. For those with nest eggs for such an event, it’s possible to move through a crisis with less negative effect. For others without resources, they often have to “sell low” and find themselves falling further and further behind. For those with lots of financial security and disposable income, these are the times that they lay the foundation for getting richer by “buying low”.
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Good god, ok lets try this again people.
You said this will come back in a few weeks or months in response to my comment about effects on downtown hotel projects.
Bear Markets take an average of 2-5 years to rebound to their previous high. Sure, we are all able to understand this and not freak out over our Roths and 401ks. Great. But in the 4-5 years or recovery time the hotel market is likely to see projects delayed or canceled, I’d guess.
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The market will soon be flooded with money. It all depends on when the virus will secede. This is not the Great Depression. Much different monetary policy. Swift snapback.
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just hope the flood of money coming from all directions does not lead to higher inflation down the road.
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In theory it should, but the inflation theories have been broken for a while and with other countries doing the same I just don’t know. No other way right now though. Gotta print.
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I have feeling the theories have just been sleeping. A lot of banks around the world have been buying US bonds and such for their reserves which moves $ from supply, demand for which will dry up at some point. Do not know when maybe in 6 months or in 3-4 years (which I have used in my planning) or even more. I think trigger will be when EU and Japan moved away from negative rates. But the longer it takes the worst will be when the theories wake up ---- JMHO ---- If nothing happens withing 3-4 years all the better, for me that is.
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Great discussion all! 
But maybe @dtraleigh could move this conversation over to a new political/business thread? 
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And this is where we thank the heavens that we are NOT an economy based on tourism. Imagine how folks in Vegas and Orlando are shitting themselves right now! Even places like Nashville have to be concerned at the moment. Raleigh, long derided for being boring and lacking “experiences” hasn’t built its economy on tourism dependency, and it’s not going to take as much of a hit because of it.
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I was thinking the same thing. But would that be considered as ITB - 
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I think here work. 
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many thanks and extras
Way too early to tell how bad this is going to be, we don’t know what fundamental issues this shock in demand will expose. By some measures this may be worse than 08. The airline industry will need a bailout, that’s a given. Corporate debt will be an issue, most companies are over leveraged due to a decades long low interest rate fiscal policy. It’ll be interesting to see how many will have issues covering debt service when revenues across the board drop significantly in Q1-Q2. Student loan defaults may also rise with the jobs not being there as companies cut back hiring. There is also a growing sub-prime auto loan scheme that’s potentially a ticking time bomb.
With the layoffs already happening and more to follow, consumer spending, which drives our economy, will surely nosedive. What I’m afraid of is with the entire world all in a similar situation, where is the growth going to come from?
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One hiccup in the supply chain and hello stagflation. Nobody will be immune from the fallout then. Except maybe the folks that have been living in a cash economy all this time anyway.
I dont know lol, I was on Broadway in Nashville and I got to tell you Glenwood South holding it’s own lol.
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Most people going to glenwood south are from Raleigh or the greater Raleigh area.
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I am not saying that it won’t be severe, I’m just saying that it will be much worse in a city/metro that’s heavily dependent on tourism. I stand by that statement.
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