Is there any reason to believe a Raleigh Durham MSA re-combination will occur?
The endless fears about the Triangle somehow missing out on good stuff because of the separate MSAās seems to be massively overblown IMO. Iām pretty sure that the people and companies who make decisions on what to invest in and where to locate donāt see these government statistical area measurements as the be-all and end-all.
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Yes, itās likely that when a company or investment group gets serious about the area, theyād dig in and understand the Triangleās real combined statistical area data.
That said, if youāre looking to attract a company that is in the infancy stages of digging into potential locations, itās probably smart to get into the specifics of this. It may be redundant, but itās better to have it and not need it, than need it and not have it.
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Thanks for fiding this PDF! This is exactly what I was looking for!
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Most likely Iāll happen this year. Government has final word not City nor state which Iām very happy about. Iāll split nightmare will be over.
Q1 2023 market report by the DT Raleigh Alliance just came out today as well:
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See above: OMBās updated CBSA (including MSA) boundaries are expected in June 2023.
You say that and then we have things like Amazon HQ2ās press release on finalists forgetting to mention Durham MSA was also part of our bid. The articles written āconfirmedā we were the smallest bidder, when the actual smallest bidder (Nashville) got a consolation prize from Amazon. Perception matters.
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Government data is the quickest and easiest way to compare things like population, employment base, and GDP across geographies. Many companies absolutely start with these sources. They may dig in further on select markets, but if a market doesnāt make the initial cut based on these sources, then they never dig in further on that area.
I work in commercial real estate and have seen numerous companies cite MSA level statistics for location decisions. If the person/committee in charge asks for metro level data, then MSA is the default criteria. Maybe they look at CSA or TV market, but in my experience, MSA data is the most widely referenced.
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Can you help me understand this a little better?
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Iām not understanding what āCommute Interchangeā means. And why that stat arbitrarily was set up to define metro areas.
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Does the public get any input on this? Who or what committee makes this final decision?
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One of the issues with the OMB rules is not necessarily the percentage threshold. Wake and Durham County have the highest amount of traffic between two counties in the state. But there is some quirk because Wake is bigger than Durham yet the majority of commuters come from Wake.
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How do I figure out what that quirk is?
Is there anyone well-versed in all of this MSA/CSA stuff that would be willing to a call one day next week to chat with me about it? @JeepCSC @paytonc ?
I found a site that broke it down somewhat into actual English years ago. The gist I got was they donāt look at commuting both ways, just anchor and outlier counties and the Triangle didnāt fit that mold. But I havenāt seen it so simply put since. Mostly just vague government-speak about ācore countiesā without defining core.
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Thank goodness no, itās really final say.
As Wake gets larger and businesses choose to be be in Raleigh instead of RTP, the commuting percentages between the two counties will likely go down.
With a greater percentage of people working hybrid or mostly remotely, it only exacerbates the statistical challenges to unifying the Triangle into one MSA.
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Sounds like the opposite is true and the current problem is too many going from Wake to RTP /Durham Co. Getting more inbound to Wake is whatās needed. I think Iām understanding that correctly.
Just now looking at the Censusā onthemap tool, the latest data (2020) shows around 90,000 commuting between Wake and Durham. The issue is that itās split (27,000 Durham ā Wake, or around 14.5% of their labor force; and 62,000 Wake ->Durham, 13.5% of Wakeās). So even though Wake is the largest contributor of Durhamās workforce (larger than Durhamās even), the two counties are considered separate.
OMB uses ācentral countiesā based on urban areas to find the center of a region, and then tack on outlying counties based on commuting to add to the MSA. Raleigh and Durham have been separate urban areas forever and only recently started butting into each other even as the Park remained a barrier to developing in the middle. I guess as long as the urban areas remain separate, the OMB will feel fine calling Wake a singular central county, and therefore Durham not meeting the definition of outlying county to us. We would likely need the Raleigh-Durham urban areas to be combined. Or something.
This is no surprise to me. As Durham (Co.) & especially Wake get larger, itās going to be more and more difficult to achieve commuter statistics that will justify the merger of the two MSAs into one. I donāt want to see the Triangle continue to be split an statistically diminished, but I am just being realistic in my expectations. That said, Iād love to be wrong and pleasantly surprised.
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I think RTP in the middle hurts the numbers. Along with the bulk of RTP being in Durham County. My work place is just barely across the Durham county line in RTP. So my commute counts against us. There are a ton of people commuting form wake county to Durham side of RTP, but I bet the number commuting into downtown Durham is much, much less.
With the Wake side of RTP getting built up (Apple campus, whenever that gets built) it will help I think.
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