Less constrained by surrounding municipalities, Charlotte has annexed more aggressively than Raleigh. Charlotte is growing - literally - as the city annexes more land - Charlotte Urban Institute
I went back and checked the source, and my suspicions were true. Demographia combined Charlotteās UA with Gastoniaās, Concordās, and Rock Hillās. This really dragged down the overall UA density because those 3 are especially low density. For those who like to dig into numbers, hereās the link to the report.
https://blogs.chapman.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/56/2025/06/Demographia-World-Urban-2025.pdf
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we are like Cary here in Charlotte but we are slowing down in the annexation department. Still some holes and areas east and west but south are towns of Matthews, Mint Hill and Pineville to the north is Huntersville that blocks any movement north. Every county east has towns right up to the county line to block Charlotte in Cabarrus and Union counties. But Charlotte is densifying intown with lots of multifamily.
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Raleigh-Cary is the only MSA over 1M to be among the fastest growing MSAs in the nation. Wake added the 5th largest number of people among all counties in the USA.
While I havenāt yet been able to put my fingers on any other county data for the Triangle, I did find this color growth chart. It looks like the Raleigh MSA is still outpacing the Durham MSA in growth rates.
In NC in general, Wake and Mecklenburg continue to do the heavy lifting and so do the Charlotte and Raleigh MSAs. The Wilmington area continues to grow rapidly, but their population base is still pretty small in comparison.
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Wow! Texas with half of the top 10 for counties!
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As the saying goesā¦ 
I lifted this off of a post in CityData forums. Iām not sure where they got the data, so donāt shoot the messenger if any of it is incorrect.
If it is correct, I continue to be dumbfounded by the anemic growth in the Durham-Chapel Hill MSA. If the 2025 estimate is correct, then their entire MSA only grew by 4,963 between 24 & 25. Wake County alone grew over 27,000.
Charlotte: 2,938,830 +10.5%
Raleigh: 1,595,720 +12.9%
Greensboro: 805,945 +3.8%
Winston-Salem: 712,206 +5.4%
Durham: 625,485 +6.2%
Wilmington: 492,772 +16.6%
Asheville: 422,345 +3.8%
Fayetteville: 395,412 +2.2%
Hickory: 376,890 +3.2%
Jacksonville: 217,175 +6.2%
Burlington: 186,177 +8.6%
Greenville: 182,936 +6.5%
Rocky Mount: 148,486 +3.2%
Goldsboro: 122,278 +4.2%
Pinehurst: 110,619 +10.9%
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Many people in Chapel Hill would say that the MSA grew by 4,963 too many.
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I was looking at the individual Census estimates for each county, and the best that I can guess is that the 24 estimate was revised downward, and the growth only seemed to net Durham-Chapel Hill less than 5K in growth year over year. I say this because Wake was revised down for ā24, and the 27K+ added in ā25 was on top of the revised number. So, just how much did Durham-Chapel Hill grow? I donāt know, but I presume weāll know soon when more information is made available about the revisions for 24 and we can compare them to the numbers for 25.
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I wonder if some of these migration numbers have something to do with retirees moving to places with low or zero personal income tax?
Chapel Hill has some of the highest housing costs in the state no wonder it is slower growth plus they are still pretty much anti-growth where it takes years and years to get something approved.
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Update on Durham-Chapel Hill MSA. The 2024 estimate was adjusted downward a few thousand. This means that their 2025 growth estimate is +7,328.
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Chapel Hill is not growing. It has had a stagnant population for a while. Durham is growing at a steady clipāthe 4th fastest of the urban counties in the state after Wake, Meck, and New Hanover. The MSA numbers are just getting pulled down by NIMByland.
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Iām sure part, but thatās been a known factor for a long time. Iām thinking the tech shift from CA to TX has a lot to do with it as well.
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I hear what you are saying, but the core county of a MSA in a very fast growing CSA should be pulling more weight. To be fair, Durham Co. only grew just under 5K itself. For comparison, suburban Johnston grew by nearly 7K. Chatham is growing largely due to spill over from Cary, south Durham, and Chapel Hill. Orange and Person did grow, but only by hundreds each.
2024 estimates were largely revised downward for counties in the Triangle, so the growth numbers are based on the adjusted 24 numbers.
As Chatham Park kicks into high gear, we are going to see numbers out of Chatham like we are seeing in Johnston
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Itās not a race. If 99% of the growth is sprawl how is that any good?
Downtown Durham is increasing its population at a similar speed Charlotte and Raleigh are and thatās the number that actually matters.
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Letās wait and see what city numbers say when they come out.
I think the household size in Durham is probably shrinking too. If the area is becoming more affluent, itāll create a situation where DINKs and one/two child families will be replacing working class families with more children.
That dynamic has played out across the rust belt in cities like Chicago where large families of immigrants used to occupy small apartments in the city, and are now replaced by single or DINK couples.
As it stands today per the Census, Durham has 2.21 ppl/household and Raleigh has 2.27. They arenāt substantially different despite Raleigh having dozens of more square miles of suburbia in its limits.
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Here are the 2024 (adjusted) and 2025 population estimates for the Triangle counties sorted by CSA, MSA, and Micropolitan Area. The first number is 2024, the second number is 2025, and the 3rd number is the growth year over year. All 10 counties within the 10 county CSA grew, though one in particular is barely treading water.
Raleigh-Durham-Cary CSA: 2,434,961 / 2,484,238/ +49,277
Raleigh-Cary MSA: 1,558,927 / 1,595,720 / +36,793
Wake: 1,229,475 / 1,257,235 / +27,760
Johnston: 249,522 / 256,448 / +6,920
Franklin: 79,930 / 82,037 / +2,107
Durham-Chapel Hill MSA: 618,157 / 625,485 / +7,328
Durham: 342,314 / 347,240 / +4,926
Orange: 151,745 / 152,498 / +753
Chatham: 83,832 / 85,111 / +1,279
Person: 40,266 / 40,636 / +370
Anderson Creek Micropolitan Area:
Harnett County: 146,456 / 150,137 / +3,672
Sanford Micropolitan Area:
Lee County: 68,819 / 70,258 / +1,439
Henderson Micropolitan Area:
Vance County: 42,602 / 42,638 / +36
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