Raleigh-area Mall / Life-Style Center / RTP Redevelopments

Yeah I don’t get why this word keeps getting thrown around. There’s obviously racist white people who don’t want to live near black people (and probably the reverse, and other combinations too), but that’s not the same thing as xenophobia. And I don’t think any of that is consciously driving or preventing development either private or city planned at this point.

And the city certainly isn’t blocking luxury stores. Those stores determine for themselves where they think it would be profitable for them to locate. I’m not sure who wants to buy luxury clothes because of a label, but I doubt it’s most of the people shopping at Crabtree. If anything, North Hills probably has the clientele with that kind of extra money to throw away. I usually feel underdressed and under primped when I am over there. :joy:

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The pattern with Saks Fifth Avenue closures over the past decade is actually a pretty clear map of how luxury retail geography has changed in the U.S.

It’s less about whether a metro area is prosperous and more about where affluent shoppers concentrate and how they shop now.

:one: Luxury Retail Has Become Hyper-Concentrated

Twenty years ago Saks could succeed in many regional malls because luxury shoppers were more geographically dispersed.

Now the business has concentrated into very specific types of locations:

Tourist luxury corridors

Ultra-affluent urban centers

Destination lifestyle centers

These places combine:

  • tourism

  • very high income density

  • experiential shopping

They generate huge sales per square foot, which luxury brands demand.

:two: Department Stores Lost Their Gatekeeper Role

Historically Saks acted as a gatekeeper for luxury brands in secondary cities.

If you wanted Chanel, Prada, or Saint Laurent in a mid-tier metro, Saks was the entry point.

But brands have changed strategy.

Many now prefer:

  • flagship boutiques

  • direct e-commerce

  • high-profile luxury malls only

So instead of 40 Saks stores carrying a brand, you might see 10 flagship boutiques in top markets.

That hollowed out Saks locations in secondary malls.

:three: E-Commerce Hit the Middle Tier Hardest

Luxury shoppers now often:

  • browse in a flagship store while traveling

  • reorder online later

That means the local luxury department store is no longer necessary.

Places with heavy tourism still work because visitors want the in-person experience.

But suburban luxury stores without tourism traffic struggle.

:four: Raleigh’s Specific Situation

Raleigh is economically strong, but the luxury retail structure looks like this:

Affluent households → Wake Forest / North Raleigh / Cary / Chapel Hill

Luxury retail gravity → Crabtree Valley Mall and The Streets at Southpoint

That leaves Triangle Town Center outside the luxury orbit.

It’s not the region that’s weak — it’s the specific retail node.

:five: Why Nashville Works (Good Comparison)

Nashville has something Raleigh lacks: luxury tourism.

Visitors arriving for music, conventions, and events shop at:

That tourist spending stabilizes luxury stores even when local demand fluctuates.

Raleigh’s economy is strong but business-driven rather than tourist-driven, which changes the retail math.

The Result

Luxury chains like Saks are becoming:

  • fewer stores

  • bigger flagships

  • concentrated in global or tourism markets

Secondary suburban luxury department stores are the ones disappearing.

Which is why the Triangle Town Center store ultimately ended up on the closure list.

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I maintain that Saks would do fine at North Hills, Crabtree, or Fenton.

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I’d add that the limited number of luxury markets are getting even more stores. In South Florida, the developer behind Bal Harbour Shops has created a new luxury shopping model in the Design District just north of Midtown Miami. It’s not just for local shoppers either. Tourism plays a big part. Then there’s Brickell City Center that’s bridging a typical mall with a substantial number of luxury brand stores. There’s also all of the high end boutiques on Worth Ave. in Palm Beach.

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I think the issue in the entire Triangle is there is no real dominant mall like in the Charlotte area. There is a pecking order in Charlotte the best stores and luxury retailers all at SouthPark, value and outlets at Concord Mills and Carolina Place with Belks Dillards JC Penney and Northlake Belks Dillards Belk Outlet and Macys. Northlake is our weakest mall.

Nordstrom going to Durham’s Streets at Southpoint precluded another location in Raleigh where I think the store would have performed better. If Nordstrom had gone to Crabtree that would be the dominant mall in the region. But now you have North Hills without a department store anchor gaining more of the luxury stores and the general interest in mixed use open air projects like this. TTC was never a good location for a luxury retailer just as Carolina Place Mall in Pineville (south Charlotte) was. I would love to see a department store even a small location at North Hills but not sure Kane would be interested as you can get more rent out smaller retailers than one larger anchor.
Triangle Town Center needs to be demalled and shrunk significantly and made into a mixed use complex with lots of apartments, even townhomes, hotels etc.
If you split the Triangle into 2 metros like the Census bureau does (I disagree with this) but then Durham Chapel Hill has one dominant mall Streets of Southpoint and Raleigh has one dominant mall Crabtree.

As for the Mall at Green Hills it might be the best mall in Nashville metro but does not hold a stick to SouthPark in Charlotte which is the best mall by far between DC and Atlanta. But again all of luxury stores go there.

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That might be one part of the equation, but I don’t think that the Triangle is that big of a luxury brand market. While the incomes are certainly there for the Triangle, I just don’t think that most of the populace cares.

I do agree about Nordstrom. I think that they’d do better at Crabtree simply because there are just more people around it. Heck, Raleigh alone has about the same population of Durham and Orange Counties combined.

I can easily see Bloomingdale’s in Raleigh, and I can also see stores like Design Within Reach (which is coming to North Hills), Burberry, and some other higher end brands, but I can’t imagine the Triangle supporting stores like Alexander McQueen, Balenciaga, Fendi, Givenchy, Hermes, Moncler, Louis Vuitton, etc.

Losing Saks means that the Triangle loses access to some brands that they carried exclusively, but it might also means that some of those brands start considering the Triangle for a store.

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Looks like there’s less grand strategy to it than I had expected. The go-forward store list shows:

Saks only:

  • Boston
  • CT - Greenwich
  • FL - Naples

Overlap markets:

  • Atlanta
  • Detroit - Troy
  • Houston
  • LA - Beverly Hills
  • Miami/Coral Gables
  • NYC (Saks + Bergdorf)
  • Palm Beach/Boca Raton

Neiman Marcus only:

  • Austin
  • Charlotte
  • Chicago
  • Dallas/Ft. Worth
  • Denver
  • DC - Tysons
  • Las Vegas
  • NJ - Paramus, Short Hills
  • NY - Long Island
  • Orange County - Newport
  • Orlando
  • Philadelphia - KOP
  • Phoenix - Scottsdale
  • San Antonio
  • SF - SF, Stanford
  • St. Louis
  • Tampa

Seems like the Saks name was just weaker nationally; they’re retreating entirely to top-15 metros, plus Naples with its rich old NYers. Neiman reaches down to top-25 metros; Charlotte and St. Louis are its smallest markets. Charlotte benefits, as pointed out above, from having a single dominant mall – retailers of all stripes, and especially luxury retailers, flock together and all want to be in one mall.

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It makes me wonder if we’re going to see a contraction down to one nameplate luxury retailer across the country. It feels akin to the whole Macy’s consolidation we saw back in 2005-2007.

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Doesn’t Sakes already own Neiman-Marcus? That would take us to what, 3 luxury dept store chains?

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Yes, Saks borrowed a ton of money to acquire Neiman Marcus and Bergdorf Goodman in 2024. I suspect the deal was a combination of ego on the part of Saks’ and NMG’s leadership and some great PowerPoint by Wall Street investment banks who surely described the deal as a financial paradise. (They always do.) Of course, the deal turned out to be financial hell – but when this happens, the investment banks have already pocketed their fees and just say, “Too bad! You should have known better.” Promptly after the deal closed, Saks entered dire financial trouble. They refinanced the deal in 2025 – giving the investment banks another round of fees – but that wasn’t sufficient. They’re still working through it, now in bankruptcy court.

The big winners now will be the lawyers working on the bankruptcy and companies like Epiq that manage claims.

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Saks Global is the holding company of Saks Fifth Avenue, Neiman-Marcus, and Bergdorf Goodman. The saga started from Hudson’s Bay Company, a Crown Corporation which was started in 1670 and spread across the Commonwealth. An American, Richard Baker was hired on at The Bay, first purchasing Neiman-Marcus/Bergdorf Goodman, and then Saks Fifth Avenue, creating an amalgamation of retail outlets to sell luxury goods.

Finding itself in a struggling position with a mountain of debt, that plan started to develop cracks, The Hudson’s Bay was first spun off and eventually liquidated. Then, Saks Global declared Chapter 11 here in the US. As part of reorganization plan, the former head of Neiman-Marcus was brought in, and has then gone through two rounds of store closures. A number of suppliers were then caught up in the process, electing not to ship them any new merchandise.

Getting a $1.2 billion cash lifeline this month, the suppliers starting shipping items to be sold. It’s a temporary fix, but the store closures have been landing on the Saks locations.

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Yes, my Canadian wife was very sad to see The Bay fold after such a storied history. Tho when I shoppes there it remindes me of Penny’s or Sears. Eaton’s was more upscale, but alas they went under first.

Belks is in a tricky situation as well, having be bought by an equity firm from what remained of the family. The whole retail segment is struggling. The future of the deparrment stores, luxury and otherwise, will be interesting to watch

On a side note, I remember when it was a big deal that Raleigh was getting a Macy’s.

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Stay tuned… ASR submitted on Friday for North Hills East Phase 5. Maybe plans will get uploaded this week or next…

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That was a really interesting video. Thanks for sharing it.

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I was a total mallrat in the 90’s!!

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It just seemed to me that there were so many parallels to what Raleigh is dealing with today, including too much mall space, a shift to outdoor lifestyle centers like North Hills, Fenton, Village District, and the outdoor space at Southpoint, and the resurgence of downtowns proper.

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It seems like in the not too distant future we’ll be down to two enclosed malls in the Triangle, (from only 3) so I think we’re actually ahead of the curve on that front in a lot of ways.

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20 floor residential building with parking podium. no retail but kinda makes sense since its tucked away in the corner of the site. Although Church St looks to be setup to connect through to Kane’s new Navaho Dr area.

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