Raleigh Elections and Council Overall

Interestingly, I learned yesterday that Ruth is a close friend of Leo Williams (Durham’s current mayor) and that Ruth will be distancing from LR this go round. Perhaps Ruth’s campaign was hijacked last time?

Leo’s policy position for housing in Durham is basically Strong Towns

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It could only be “hijacked” because he let it happen. Not exactly a show of strength and leadership, and therefore not worth my consideration for a vote.

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I Don’t know if you all saw the post David Cox wrote. But he threw a soft Jab at Mitchell Silver, and to my surprise he said that Mary Black basically hasn’t lived up to expectations he is basically a mouth peice for the overall consensus for Livible Raleigh this is a pretty strong Statement about her.

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Ewww

(Extra characters)

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The march of the :grumpy_cat: continues, bangin’ the same offbeat drum of suburban utopia ruined by those dastardly developers -

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I mentioned my platform above… Lol
I think I’ll attract a broad coalition.

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You should just to draw the extreme votes lol

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I’ve got a lot of skeletons in my closet…

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So, back to my original comment. With the field crowded with Democrats and one Republican, expect the Republican to win regardless of who they are and what sort of experience they have. This change by the GA surely presumed that progressive cities with lots of engagement and interest for the position of mayor are prime candidates for a Republican take-over of the helm by simple math alone. The Democrats will all split their majority of votes and the sole Republican will win. This looks like it’s playing out exactly how I presumed they intended.

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I would like to bet you $50 that there will not be a Republican mayor of Raleigh after the next election.

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MAB’s ‘back room deal’ gone awry, perhaps…? I’m thinking our mayor will still be a Dem but, you feel free to reserve the right for I told ya so…

Her website made reference to taking a more intentional approach and made a lot of references to “community engagement” and the comp plan while limiting the use of spot zoning. IMO that by itself isn’t a bad thing necessarily - it’s in fact the exact approach the city is taking on TOD by doing small area plans and then making associated UDO changes. I do remember another quote from one of the articles around her announcement that rubbed me the wrong way, will try and find it. Given the relatively limited power of the Mayor, I think it matters a lot more who the mayor is serving with and if there’s a political coalition of support around the pro-urbanism/housing/transit/non-car patterns of growth that this group favors.

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This exact thing happened last time and MAB won going away. The candidates will not evenly split the vote, and I’d be frankly shocked if a Republican had the ability to break 15% in a Raleigh election these days.

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Sounds a little like (fill in the blank with literally every 2016 democratic leader) saying Trump will never be President. I wouldn’t discount the R vote, especially given all the perceptions (I didn’t say REALITY) of increased crime. It doesn’t take a majority to win anymore.

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You beat me to it. I’ve got some money in my pocket, though, if $50 doesn’t clear the market for action on this bet.

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Point taken - there’s definitely a universe where that’s theoretically possible. But it would require several things to happen, all of which are unlikely:

  • all non-R candidates would need to divide their vote roughly evenly (almost never happens, usually one or two candidates rise above the rest in terms of ability to reach voters through paid communications, volunteer efforts, and endorsements)
  • There would need to be only one R candidate (Paul Fitts)
  • That R candidate would need enough support from donors/endorsements/volunteers to communicate with voters.

Remember that this is a non-partisan race, so candidates wouldn’t have their party ID next to their names, and the Wake GOP is a massive dumpster fire in terms of organization right now.

There are 3 serious candidates in this race, so I would expect Janet/Corey/Terrence to get a combined share of about 90% of the vote, if not more. Again, I could be wrong! But I’d agree with James/David and in fact raise that bet considerably higher.

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Shaughnessy seems like a nice enough kid in an “aw-shucks, sure ya can, Tiger” kind of way, but it’s a no from me dawg. This is a major city, not Partridge, Minnesota, so let’s dispense civics lessons elsewhere.

He lost me at the IV at the end of his name.

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I like how he paints Michael Silver as an outsider, despite having served as a director for Raleigh’s city planning for 9 years, and running the whole damn thing for 3.5 years. He’s likely one of the most (if not the most) qualified candidates we’ve ever had to want the position.

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I consider that 2 serious candidates - who have have ample experience in city gov’t and beyond, a strong history of community involvement, and at least basic yet tangible examples of the kinds of policy they’d be aiming to put in place … and one guy who simply has unearned name recognition from running in the last election cycle, but who hasn’t put forth any serious display of growth in any of the above mentioned categories or any perception that he’s any more prepared to involve himself in city gov’t all these years after his last run. He just popped up out of nowhere last time around, then promptly disappeared back into his private life since - only to pop back up and announce a run now that it’s election time again. “T.Ruth” should not be taken seriously as a candidate, sorry to say.

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