Clearly the developers are trying to go from 0 to 100 in 1 second in this part of downtown, and I suppose that’s because of the cost of land has done the same?
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They thought rates would be lower by now. Woopsie
Low interest rates seem to have become the default assumption given that they were low for so long. This affects both the developer and the buyers.
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5% is the historical average, or was until this period of unprecedentedly low rates since 2008. It is going to take every awhile to adjust to more normal rates, the addiction is deep.
This is definitely effecting folks who locked in at 2-4%.
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It might be more than just interest rates, a lot of builders are selling property with rate buy downs. I would argue it’s the end sale price which is driven by land, hard, and soft cost - $500,000 even at 3% interest is still $2,108 before taxes and insurance.
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Per the developer’s website, the 500 Hoke St development is slated to start “early 2025”. Toulon Place is also being developed by Passage Home. I wouldn’t be surprised to see movement on the Hoke St site now that Toulon is wrapping up
As a refresher, this is planned to be 4-stories of affordable units for seniors.
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There are some good renderings of The Grey on this website and this cool video too (that is somewhat outdated):
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Looks like they are implementing the new(ish) street section with separated bike lanes behind the curb but with a planting strip between it and the sidewalk. Nice!
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Checked the Development and Permitting Portal to see if I could glean anything
- Plans were filed 18 months ago, in Feb '24, for a 228 unit development that ended up going nowhere. I couldn’t find the plans themselves
- 12 months ago (Aug '24) they requested verification that they could build multi-family
If they build something similar to the original plan it would be a bit under half the density of something like the Lincoln.
I assume they are maximizing what they can fit on the land without spending money on structured parking. Then again, based on the plan for 500 Hoke St (the lot directly to the north of this one) which is half as many units on a similarly sized lot, it seems like it could be hard to fit 228 units with at least as many parking spaces here if they went all surface parking, but I’m kinda just guessing.
| Development | # Units | Acreage | units/acre |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Lincoln | 224 | 2.06 | ~110 |
| old Garner Rd plan | 228 | 4.7 | ~50 |
| 500 Hoke St | 120 | 3.9 | ~30 |
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Update on sales
The Gray has had no trouble selling (82 out of 100 sold)
South Heights currently still sits at 33% sold (9 out of 27), although their website makes it look like half the units aren’t “available” yet
City Hike has only sold 17% (2 out of 12 units)
As for City Pointe Townhomes up on New Bern, it seems like they are no longer trying to sell them for now. There are a number of them listed for rent and their site is now a shared promo landing page for the Idyle, City Hike and 615 Peace
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I’m pretty sure that City Pointe has only sold one townhouse and the second shown as sold is actually under contract.
Looks like with this sale, the initial buyer will be wiped out of atleast $35,000 of “home equity” by the next sale and the developer appears to be needing to sell these as they have lowered one to under $600K.
I’ve always had this thought but this goes to show that the people desire more “The Gray”-like townhome condos.
It would be great if Stanley Martin built more townhomes on the empty lot on Branch St. Is there anything planned for that lot?
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I think people desire the price point. Some lower level units are selling for <$450k. Stanley Martin can offer that with their scale. The townhomes built by smaller developers are (IMO) a higher-quality product, but as a buyer it’s hard to choose that over a $450k option in the same neighborhood, both new construction. I have a feeling the association fees at the Gray are pretty steep but not sure.
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The $100K of so price difference represents nearly $600/month higher payment. The Grey definitely fits the profile of someone wanting lots of space but I worry resale will not be strong which shouldn’t be a concern because you are buying the unit for location, not appreciation.
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