John’s point is correct about how old boundary lines play a large role in how these MSAs are defined now.
In general, the Census Bureau and OMB are kind of stuck in a rut with their system for defining MSAs. I’ve had some time to look at the commuting flows now and the data is absolutely filthy compared to past releases–error margins are incredibly high, so high as to make the estimates essentially equal to 0 in almost 65% of all county-county commuting pairs. That’s really bad relative to past releases, and I think (still looking at data) had a lot of impact on the limited amount of change of any kind in this release.
But John points out that maybe OMB will review/revise their criteria over the next 5 years or so. I’m just… less hopeful about that. In my opinion the only way OMB makes any move at all to reconsider how MSAs are defined is if they are directed to by the president or Congress.
OMB is a part of the executive branch, so the president can order OMB to change their definitions. Or, Congress can pass a bill that requires OMB to change their definitions, and if it’s signed by the president, then OMB has to do it.
No president we are likely to have before 2030 is going to care at all about changing MSA definitions. But you have a lot more opportunity to encourage your Congressperson to care about the issue and sponsor a bill. That’s the whole point of Congress is to be close enough to “the people” to be responsive.
The whole system is falling apart but if you actually want to DO something about changing the definitions, or the whole basis of urban area definitions and MSAs, your best bet is to start contacting your representative. Contact all the Triangle-area reps, but start with your specific one. Then look into other places around the country that find themselves in similar spots: maybe Greensboro and Winston-Salem would rather be in a Piedmont Triad MSA than in two separate MSAs with a CSA. I think the same would be true for Greenville and Spartanburg (SC). I have to believe the same would also be true for Salt Lake City and Ogden. Reach out to representatives of those areas as well. These people all talk to each other and work with each other on different subjects, and if you can connect them in regards to your specific interest, you’re doing some of the networking for them. I’m not going to call Congressmen lazy, but they are extremely overworked and are expected to care about/know something about way more things than we can expect, so you have to be ready to do as much of their work for them as you can.
This means you need to be ready to do more than just say this is a problem that needs to be fixed. First you need to explain to them why it’s a problem and what the solution is. Then you need to show them why it’s a problem that they can work with their colleagues on (ie, explain how the same problem also affects GSP/SLC/wherever else). If you are really ready to make change, find some researchers (not at the Census, though; look for academics who’ve published papers about the MSA definition process) who’ll go on the record with you about why and how the definitions should be changed, or why and how the current definitions affect things - why is it important for the the Triangle to be a single MSA, how are MSAs and CSAs viewed differently, etc. - and tell your chosen representative about this academic. At a certain point, you need to identify and start working with a specific staffer in your congressperson’s office - probably someone in the DC office, not the local one - who will help you actually craft a piece of legislation.
It’s a lot of work but this is what it takes. Your congressperson doesn’t have the ability to zoom in on every issue of importance and take action; this is why most bills are written by the industries or interests they affect. You just have to become your own special-interest-group lobbyist.
That’s my recommendation; The Force, in this context, is manipulating the levers of power to get what you want.
