Downtown South development

Sorry. To clarify, he will build a new BOA stadium for NFL sooner rather than later imo :thinking:
This one will be retrofitted for Soccer for the short term ? :soccer:

The Atlanta experience is really remarkable. Atlanta United’s attendance is amazing, rivaling Seattle’s - who also play in a NFL stadium. I will be curious to see how Charlotte does - that is a lot of seats to fill, and nothing is worse - IMHO - than playing in a half or 3/4s empty stadium, no matter the size.

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I’m reminded at how silly things looked for DC United when they were shoehorned into RFK.

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Is this new news that MLS won’t be expanding again?

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Guessing this isn’t the end of expansion for MLS. They need that expansion money to survive. They might pump the brakes for a while to let the new teams get established but they’ll be back looking for $400-$500 million for a couple of new teams within 2 years.

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I just read on WRAL webpage that Garber stated that 5 more teams will be added in the future . Please
correct me if I read this wrong .

You did it was team already announce expansions it just home openers.

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What does that mean?

I think they meant the planned expansion teams. Other than Charlotte, 5 more coming to MLS

2020: Miami, Nashville
2021: Austin, Charlotte
2022: St Louis, Sacramento

MLS has indicated potentially as many as 34 teams. NFL has 32. the other leagues are all around that number but most leagues have all hinted at expansion at some point.

The difference is MLS needs the money. They don’t have a TV contract that generates any revenue. Attendance at MLS games is ‘meh’ aside from a few teams. The franchise fees help fuel this league and will continue to do so until the league gets at least a little closer in terms of ‘legitimacy’ compared to the “Big 4” American pro sports leagues.

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It’s over for Raleigh, time to focus on baseball . Garber said in an interview today That he going to miss expansion announcement and has hinted at this being the last one I think it’s time to go and focus on baseball.

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I spoke with Malik’s attorney yesterday and he has a different opinion

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I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again, and was just proven correct for that matter: Raleigh will never get a damn MLS team. And I really don’t care at all, personally.

I wonder why Garber would say that. Obviously everything in his presser is going to be calculated. So what does he/MLS have to gain by saying the league is now capped?

I don’t know, but my guess would be that MLS is going into a phase where they will be out to prove that they 100% believe in their product. I think the whole “MLS is a ponzi-scheme” narrative hurt them a bit, bc honestly, while it wasn’t really a scam, it was a league being carried by expansion fees.

At some point that has to stop, bc at some point you oversaturate the market. With expansion fees over $300 million now, MLS really has to prove that there is a lot of underlying value there and that their product is profitable / can flourish without reliance on these fees.

Now, if over the next 5 years MLS doesn’t start increasing attendance and viewership, they are going to have no choice but to get back into the expansion game to stay afloat as an organization. But, it seems they’ve made the decision to lock it down and start focusing on nurturing the franchises they have, instead of putting focus on growth.

If true, we should revisit in about 5 years to see where this has gotten them.

I think the tough part here is, if Raleigh wants MLS, it’s likely the only way they get it (in the near future) is if the league gets cash strapped and they open the floodgates again. But at that point, after Gerber’s comments, it may frighten investors that they abandoned ship on their move to lock down and grow their current base.

** As for Malik’s view point on all of this, I’m sure he’s not ready to give up. He has a lot invested here and this was really his big shot to have taxes fund a DT soccer stadium. He will go down swinging, but Garber wouldn’t make a statement like he did without good reason. Why would he publicly halt what could be windfalls of cash for the league, if they didn’t really have a plan in place to shut down expansion?

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He said if because they are “stopping” expansion…for the moment. So technically it’s factual…but you have cities much larger than Raleigh or charlotte USA desiring a n MLS franchise like Phoenix and Las Vegas…and unlike Raleigh their billionaires are willing to pay the franchise fees.

Forbes just ran an article yesterday arguing MLS could expand to 40+ teams…arguing soccer is fundamentally different than the NHL, NBA, MLB, and NFL. Part of the argument has to do the how the MLS is far from the best league in the world. Whereas the illusion of Americans that the NFL and NBA are the best leagues”…despite the fact that most other countries don’t play American football or basketball.

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Garber said…

“It’s a little bit bittersweet, because this is likely our last expansion team of the MLS, at least in its modern era, and we wanted to be sure that we got it right. Everything aligned here perfectly.”

So I guess the wiggle room there is “likely” and trying to define “modern era”.

Yep. There are several articles in Forbes over the last 2 years arguing expansion is a moving target for MLS and none of them seem to feel 30 is the end of expansion.

Perfect employment of the scarcity principle to drum up hype. Did it work? Are we talking about it?

Tepper is reportedly paying anywhere from $300 million to $325 million to join the league, which is an earthquake as far as expansion fees go. The Nashville and Cincinnati groups paid $150 million in 2017, and the St. Louis and Sacramento groups paid $200 million just earlier this year.

Needless to say, getting an extra $100 million for a new franchise is good news for MLS, but it probably forces them to press pause on expansion for a while. MLS really, really doesn’t want to experience what is known in the startup world as a “down round,” where a round of fundraising values the company at a lower valuation than previous rounds had. Unlike the four big North American sports leagues, MLS uses a true equity structure; Tepper is buying a 1/30 stake in the league itself, and the rights to operate a team in Charlotte, rather than buying a team in the same way that the other leagues’ owners do. So even at the $300 million price estimate, Tepper is valuing MLS at $9 billion, which is … a lot for a league that is playing its 24th season and still isn’t profitable. I think MLS may struggle to find another owner willing to match that price for a while, so a pause makes sense. Plus, they’ve now injected $700 million in capital into the league in a single year. That should help them from having to make any capital calls for a quite a while, relieving some of the pressure that has forced the league to expand so rapidly.

Needless to say, MLS is hoping that the next owner will pay more, in inflation-adjusted terms, for the 31st franchise than Tepper paid for this one. That’s going to dissuade a lot of would-be investors, possibly including even Steve Malik. (By the way, Tepper appears to have paid above-market rates for this team, and it’s fair to wonder why. There’s no tangible evidence to back this up, but it’s not impossible that Tepper bought himself a formal agreement not to expand for at least a few years.)

If MLS can get somebody to top Tepper’s valuation of the company, they’ll keep adding more teams. But I agree with the author of the Forbes piece: If they keep adding teams, at some point they’re going to have to move to a promotion-and-relegation model like every other pro soccer league in the world. That would be great for soccer fans, since P&R is an inherently exciting format. But that becomes very tricky for the existing owners because now you’re no longer selling a seat at the grown-up’s table–you’re selling a ticket to compete for a seat at the grown-up’s table, which is much less valuable.

But what happens if the bubble bursts, and MLS can’t keep attracting those sorts of prices for equity stakes in the league? I honestly don’t think that would put MLS out of business. But it would mean that MLS would have to stop sacrificing profits to chase growth, and accept that they’re probably never going to climb much higher in soccer’s global pecking order (and they’ve not climbed very high at this point). And since the current prices are essentially a bet on massive growth in the future, accepting that reality would cause prices to crater. Again, WeWork serves as a good analogy here. The company’s recent fiascoes have forced early investors to make a huge markdown on their investments, but there’s still a perfectly viable business opportunity in selling co-working space or soccer-related entertainment–just not nearly as big of an opportunity as investors had hoped. The rich guys would take a hit in the wallet, but that’s nothing to lose sleep over.

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A good portion of the land needed for this project was purchased today.

https://www.bizjournals.com/triangle/news/2019/12/23/developers-buy-land-for-massive-downtown-south.html

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