Everything @Vatnos said, plus @Street_Grid 's point. Finishing that Charlotte station will be big.
12 trains a day would be a game changer, and be a showcase for the southeast on how it can be done.
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Maybe at that point we can renovate the 1950s train cars. I love that they are old and full of character, but they are not super comfy and lack great HVAC and insulation
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NCDOT has $157 million in unspent federal grants to buy passenger trains, so I hope they can get some shiny new Siemens trainsets built in Lexington.
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Per this article from last fall the Carolinian route is due to get the new Airo trains
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Great! The Carolinian has always used Amtrak equipment so looks like this will continue as Amtrak replaces their trains.
While there has been speculation that NCDOT will exercise some of the options from the Airo contract, nothing has been announced yet.
The funding announcements keep flowing:
2019: $77m grant for new trains
2020: $80m more for new trains
2020: $47m grant to purchase S-line
2021: $57m grant for engineering on the S-line
2023: $1.09b grant to build the S-line to Wake Forest
… but in some sense, I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop in terms of announcements or confirmation that these things have actually been done! I mean, it’s been 5 years now! Where are the trains, or even the announcement of a contract? Amtrak first ordered the Airos in 2021. What about the deal with CSX to buy the S-line? Virginia purchased their portion back in 2020.
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If we could ever actually get true high speed rail, and if this was the seating arrangement, I’d take it back and forth from Miami and Raleigh at least 9 times out of 10.
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NCDOT has been presenting that the Carolinian will get new trains in 2027 and Piedmont will get them in 2032. Funded by IIJA.
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I hope the current Piedmont sets can last that long 
Is there enough equipment to support an additional round-trip when the new Charlotte station/maintenance yard open? I think @orulz may have discussed this… But I can’t recall
I would think that they could use some Amfleets or Horizon cars as a stopgap to replace the current sets.
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HIGH value for a first post! Welcome, @Michael!
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A draft feasibility study for Raleigh-Wilmington passenger rail service is now complete, and available for viewing here.
A few key highlights of the study:
- The study looked at both western (through Fayetteville/Lumberton) and eastern (through Goldsboro) route alternatives, and determined that although ridership would be slightly lower on the eastern route, it would be both shorter and less expensive, and is the recommended route for the corridor.
- The study assumes 3 round trips per day, with a travel time of 2hrs 35 minutes for the eastern route (almost an hour shorter than the western route at 3hrs 30 minutes).
- The estimated cost of the eastern route is $810m, less than $980m for the western route.
- The eastern route will require rebuilding tracks on the abandoned section between Wallace and Castle Hayne, including a replacement of the swing bridge over the Northeast Cape Fear River (included in the project cost estimate).
- Restoration of the Wallace to Castle Hayne section would create a second rail line out of Wilmington, which is a priority for the Department of Defense to create redundancy for its Sunny Point Marine Terminal and for freight movement in general, and would improve resiliency in light of recent hurricanes that have cut off access to Wilmington.
- Equipment is assumed to be Siemens Venture trainsets to provide greater interoperability with other corridors (Amtrak is upgrading most of its fleet to Ventures), but Stadtler FLIRT trainsets are also referenced as an option. Three trainsets are included in the cost estimate to ensure capacity even though only two sets are needed for the proposed service. A service and maintenance facility is expected to be needed near one end of the corridor, and would need to be 10 acres for Venture trainsets or 22 acres for FLIRT trainsets.
- Station locations are not final and are to be determined in future service planning efforts such as the service development plan funded (for both Raleigh-Wilmington and Raleigh-Fayetteville) under the FRA Corridor ID Program in December. Other than Raleigh and Wilmington, the study assumes Clayton, Selma, and Goldsboro as potential locations on the eastern route, with allowance for two additional stops. There has previously been discussion of a station at Wilmington International Airport, and other places could include Burgaw, Wallace, and Warsaw.
PortCityDaily in Wilmington picked up the news and has a good story on it if you want to read further. In addition, an organization called Eastern Carolina Rail has been founded by two Wilmington businessment with the goal of building public support to make the service a reality.
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Finally a study that actually seems to have given useful results!
The smart move is definitely the eastern route, a 3.5 hour train ride to Wilmington would be a non starter for a lot of people when it’s a 2 hour easy drive. If it’s similar to drive time it becomes a lot more feasible.
This feels like it could really happen! I don’t think that cost feels too prohibitive, as long as they don’t sit on it and let it balloon to $2 billion.
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The case for all of these train routes would be just so much more compelling if they could significantly beat driving times . I’m sure there is a good reason why that is easier said than done
This could a boon for Goldsboro by making it a viable train commute to Raleigh.
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That addition makes this even more compelling. What a way to provide a much-needed boost to one of the more depressed areas of the state. Making it an intersection point between Raleigh and Wilmington would be incredibly valuable.
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There’s a use case for taking train even when slower than driving… potentially less expensive for solo travelers, no wear and tear on vehicle, can bring bike, no parking meters, can work while traveling, etc
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Of course, or no one would ever ride it and they clearly do. It is just not ever going to disrupt car travel or gain mass appeal until you can make it significantly faster and/or significantly cheaper than driving.
I think anyone that believe the only way to judge success for a train route is to have evidence it’s displaced cars is using a mid-guided metric. It’s about providing alternatives, and alternatives for many reasons, most of which @evan.j.bost mentions above.
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There’s also an “unseen” metric that’s a bit harder to track: future growth/development.
People who already live here and are used to driving everywhere may very well keep driving regardless of what new options are provided to them. But improving transportation alternatives in North Carolina will make the state more attractive to those who value having those alternatives. Long term, that increases the percentage of newcomers who are willing to leave the car at home and thus reduces the number of cars that are being added to North Carolina roads.
In other words, new alternatives may not take many existing cars off the roads, but it can slow the rate of traffic growth. And, by the way, that’s why new high-capacity routes must be paired with transit-oriented development: you need to give those car-light and car-free types a place to live, or they won’t be able to use the services they came here to take advantage of!
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