ITB New Home Builds

Hillsborough-Wade CAC

Alright, starting my look at Hillsborough-Wade CAC new housing from 2018. This is the last ITB CAC left to do a deep dive in! This CAC is about 2,700 acres in size, & covers a lot of land that is just west and a little north of “Downtown” Raleigh. Lots of NC State in there.


I already did a thread on the types of housing in this CAC, so check that out here https://twitter.com/JWDemby/status/1135734172612513797 … & I added a picture of the breakdown for each type of unit. There is a big mix of types in this CAC historically.


In an Zillow search for 2018 new builds I found 17 Single Family Homes & 2 Town-homes. But only 5 net new SFH & the 2 TH. Average price was $963,000. That average was too low though. Will explain in my next tweet.
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The two least expensive homes were on Clark Ave $230,000 & Wilshire Ave $500,000. Zillow saw $230,000, but I maps says $826,000 for Clark…Betting that is the right price for a 3,000+sqft house. $230,000 must have been pre-teardown. That brings the average up
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Then the home on Wilshire looked like a “good deal” at $500,000 until I took a closer look. Check out the street view history. Starting 2016, half finished & sold in 2018, now back under constructions. So $500,000 in Hillsborough Wade buys you a half finished “new” house.




Then real “Cheapest” new home was on Ruffin St. & $625,000 https://www.zillow.com/homes/3103-Ruffin-St-raleigh_rb/248755162_zpid/ … Unlike this last two, this home was infill. Small home replaced by 2 (this & another).



There were only two other infill homes in the CAC. On Ashland & Barmettler St. You know things are strange when you start to feel like $700,000 homes are “reasonable for that area” 🤔 Not reasonable, just compared to the other homes.


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Man that Willshire house is dreck.

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Then there were 12 tear down 1 for 1 homes. So one home torn down & bigger more expensive one in its place. Here those are in ascending price order (Not including the 2 I already covered). $725,000 on Everett, $779,000 on Mayview, $908,000 on Oberry, 1,015,000 on Bedford Ave.




Got to be over 4,000 sqft at the following price points. I think of houses like that as missed opportunities for a 4-plex. $1,230,000 on Lyon St., $1,345,000 on Brooks, $1,350,000 on Park Dr., & $1,749,000 on Hathaway Rd.


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There were 2 homes that might have been part of a lot split, but I could not 100% figure it out. In the $800,000 on Furches & Stafford Ave. Either 1-to-1 tear downs or lot splits.


A home on grant seems to be part of at least 2 homes coming in where there were none before. $926,000. On Mayview 2 homes replaced one smaller one. Funky one in 2018 for over $1,000,000

The last two new units for sale where part the same development building multiple homes. Described as “The Saint is a landmark of luxury, featuring 17 generously & gracefully appointed modern Brownstone residences. Four unique levels, elevator, 2 garage parks, open floor plans”




Overall these units seem to be finishing fairly slow. With two selling and 3 more for sale right now.

There was a big apartment built in the CAC, but it’s deed date was 2017 & sold date is 2019. Signature 1505 would have added 150 units, but I am putting it in 2019



The 7 net new units from 2018 adds up to a .08% increase from the 8,307 units in this CAC.

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So, that wraps it up for deep dives on new housing from 2018 in ITB Raleigh CAC’s. I think having each thread come off one tweet was confusing for people. See 16 replies for each thread in pic https://twitter.com/JWDemby/status/1099021254466646017 …

I am going to come back and do a summary/put links to each CAC thread in an easy to follow thread, and update overall numbers for Apartment and some rentals data that I did not get the first time. Like adding the Dillon units to these maps.

I might also do a little explainer thread on how I getting this data from Zillow and Imaps. Anyone interested in that? Started with just Zillow searches which was not the most accurate way to go. Finding some discrepancies (mostly under counts) that Imaps data would have given me

Like these following homes from Hillsborough CAC did not come up in my zillow search back in January/Feb. Or the “overlook at Oberlin” house that finish in 2018. Only one of the ones in the street view.



I only figured out Imaps data dumps half way through the deep dives, so if I did this again in the future I would just pull data from imaps instead of zillow, then use Zillow to double check. Stuck with my original numbers because I didn’t want to change halfway through.

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There is a story there, and the story is a nightmare!

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The Money Pit Part 2

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Love the data! I was hoping for a summary so thank you in advance for all the work!

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Years ago, I seriously looked at that former mid century modern at 218 E Park. I guess it was a pretty good buy back then. I’m trying to remember what it was, but I’m thinking it was in the 200K range in the late 90s.

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Wow, that would be a crazy low price for living in that neighborhood. When I moved here in 2012 I remember thinking that $200,000 homes in Mordecai were overpriced for that area. Then when I bought in 2017 everything over there was $400,000 or more (or a nightmare), so I ended up further east. Hindsight is 20/20 right?

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In the late 80s, I looked at homes around $50,000 in Georgetown, Mordecai and along Glascock. I didn’t buy any of them because I couldn’t afford the 5 grand it would take to get them up to speed with appliances, etc. It was as if these neighborhoods were just out of my reach along the timeline. I did make a good decision by purchasing pre-renovation at The Cotton Mill in the early/mid 90s.

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Methodology
Going to do a thread on how I find housing data. Got a few request from others on how to do this themselves, & I am betting I will get some good feedback on how to improve what I am doing. Will start with Zillow, because I started out back in Jan. with just Zillow data.

I will look at the area bellow Wade Ave, East of I-40, & west of I-440 for this example. If you go to http://zillow.com , search for Raleigh, you will see a big map of Raleigh with dots (for homes).



Then I do 3 sorts when looking for homes from last year. First, I look at for sale, for rent, & recently sold. Then I set no maximum or minimum for price (so I get everything), then last I look for year built & put between 2018 & 2018



I guess I also select any number of bedrooms & any type of home (except land because that is not a home). After that the number of homes drops way down.



It looks like all the new homes are in the southeast of this area. I would zoom in on that area & start looking at the homes. I would then look at every home & keep track in a spreadsheet of home prices, size, & type like Single family or town-homes. Will look at 3 for example


One of the homes has $140,000 on the bubbles, so I click it to investigate. A screen with more details pops up & shows that the home sold for $140,000 back in 2016. If I scroll down I see that he homes was built in 2018. Sometimes if you scroll down more you find a newer price.



So zillow is not giving us the full picture on this new home. Need to look it up in Imaps which I will come back to in this thread. looking around back on the zillow map I see a $600,000 one. It says sold for that on 10/09/18. I would count this as the real price.

I put this in my spreadsheet as a Single Family home for $600,000 & 2,841 sqft. Then I need to find out if it is a “net new” home. So I go over to google maps. I copy the address from Zillow then paste it into the google maps top left search bar. This should show you the home



If you click on the picture of the address in the bottom left of the screen it takes you to google street view. In the top left of the street view picture you can see a time stamp. Click on that & it gives you a choice to go back in time. In this example there is an old 2013 pic



Clicking on that picture I can see what the lot looked like before to compare to now. There was just some woods before so this is “net new” in my count. Lots of times there was a small house there, so the new home does not actually amount to new room for people in Raleigh


I did this for all the new homes Inside the Beltline (I-440) in 2018 which took way too much time 🤪. There was also some really weird data in zillow. Like these 5 homes. Zoom in & get a birdseye view which makes me thing these SFHs are not there. 🤔



So I look up one of those homes address in google maps and see that they were on a new street. Sometimes a home from zebulon or OTB would sneak in on zillow, so I had to dig in and see if I should kick it out of the data.

Another supper supper cool feature of googlemaps is that you can see 3-d view. Click on the satellite view. Then the 3D button on the bottom right, & you can start scrolling around from above.

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Hold down Ctrl & you can spin the view around then zoom in with the track ball on a mouse. Looks more lagged with the screen capture tool I just tried than it is in real life. Lots of pixels to capture I guess. https://twitter.com/JWDemby/status/1142485216424017920

So that is the zillow method. Doesn’t give you all the info on apartments or places that were not sold. But, is easy to do especially when you did not know about some other tolls.

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The other tool, that I got progressively better at while looking at the ITB housing by CAC was Imaps. I don’t know how Imaps came to be or the story there, but it is amazing! I only really use the “tools” in the top left, search on top right, & some of the “layers” below tools.


Search is pretty simple, but I found that Imaps gets confused if you put in the zip code and city info. Just put in the # and street. This will take your right to a property & give lots of info on it. I will often click on a property then scroll down to see the # of units.



There are a lot of interesting “layers”. “Boundaries” → “Raleigh Citizen Advisory Councils” is good one. “Overlays” → NCOD & Historic are good too.



And of course the big one. ZONING! If you zoom in the zoning comes up over the property. Then with this layer on you can click on a property & see more detail. This one is in a group of R-6. Residential 6 units per acre. Duplexes allowed (but generally discouraged).



Scroll down and you can see when the property got its current zoning. Anyone have advice on how to find more details on the zoning case? I always just google Raleigh and the case#

From “tools” I have been using “Measure” & “Select”. For measure you draw around an area & measure acres for instance. The area I took a look at for this example thread has a little over 3,730 acres.


“Select” is similar but has a different outcome. You make a drawing around an area then double click to select all the properties in there. However, I found that you can only select 2,000 properties at a time. This area has more than that.


This was a huge pain in the but for me. I would have to essentially cut the CAC into a few sections, make sure to draw areas that did not overlap & pull & put all the data together. Not doing that today, just taking the data that comes up.

So once you have selected an area you can see all of those “yellow” properties as having been selected. Then on the top right of the “search” panel there is a button to export. I click that. A file exports (bottom left), click on that & you get a CSV.



I would use pivot tables in excel to sort the data, & remember to save the doc as an Excel doc and NOT A CSV! All your sorting and tables will not get saved! Like I said the data only goes to 2,000 records.


There are a few columns I found helpful. “Deed Acres” = How much land, “Total Value”= Properties Taxable Value, “Heated Area” = Square Footage inside, “Site Address”, “Year Built” = how old, “Sale Price” = last sold price, “Sale Date” = last sold on, “Use Type” = Type of building

There are lots of use types, to I would sort those for residential. Press the little triangle in the top left, then click “data” ->“Sort”. This give a little triangle next to use type that you can select to then sort by use type of select on certain ones.


One thing I noticed was that Condo’s & Townhomes are “SINGLFAM” in use type. So I would go in an change it from SINGLEFAM to Townhome and Condo use type based on the “Design Style” column.

For instance in this data, I selected just “townhomes” and “condos” from Design Style and it gave me 726 results. So of that 2,000 properties 726 are condo or townhomes. Sorry if this is becoming Excel 101. Of those 2000 properties 1,700 were residential of some form.


The things I would select for residential are “Condo”, “ELEV APT”, “FOURFAM”. “GRDN APT”, “REV/BUS”, “SINGLEFAM”, “THREEFAM”, “TOWNHOUSE”, and “TWOFAM”


Then I would make a pivot table based on the use type. Select all of the columns from total value through use type, & insert pivot table. For the pivot table, put “use type” in the column & “count of city” in the values part. You will need to sort out the use types again.


Some of the use type like a “FOURFAM” are easy. Just multiple the building count by 4 to get the total. For “GRDN APT” or “RES/BUS” you will need to look each building up to find the units.

As an example, I would go back to the data, filter for just “RES/BUS” ← I think this is Residential and Business? To find the address. Then put that in Imaps, select the property, & scroll down for units. This one says 1 unit.

When I do this for Garden Apartments I see that one was built in 2019. So not 2018, but on the way. Googlemaps says it is near PNC arena, I maps says that land is getting 150 units. I wonder if that will all finish in 2019 though.



The oldest Garden Apartment shows as on Blue Bird Court & Imaps says it has 40 units. This is just to give an idea of how to find out what is on the ground in an area.



I use those numbers to get the units in the area and them compare the new stuff to get a % of growth. To look for new units, filter just residential type and sort by year. Of those 1700 residential, none built in 2018. The ones in zillow must not have made the 2000.

I will grab just the data from around that house on Powell to show an example of how the data from imaps can give the best picture of new homes from a year like 2018. Just this little portion had 1300 properties. Of those 25 were new Single Family Homes.


I would need to go look at all of them in google maps to see if they are net new housing, but this gives you the idea for a better method than looking in zillow to get the official number of houses built in 2018 for an area. I think that is it for methodology. Thoughts advice?

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Powell Drive is a perfect example of an area that is zoned for R4-R10 that could, and really should be, zoned for, and built out with much greater density than that. There are a lot of large lots in this area that could hold hundreds, even thousands of units, but it seems that this is unlikely to happen. There is a single developer that is very active in that neighborhood, buying up large lot homes, tearing them down, and subdividing as much as possible given the constraints of the existing mostlt R-6 and R-10 zoning district. I asked him why he doesn’t rezone and build something bigger, and the answer was basically that it’s too much headache and uncertainty and it takes too long.

There is a rezoning case, Z-11-19, not by that same developer, that will upzone a R-6 lot at 510 Grove to R-10, and I am watching that one closely. If that one goes through without much controversy I would expect more to follow.

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Interesting infill project that has already started at 5700 Hillsborough St.

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Great thread. Thank you @ADUsSomeday. It is disappointing (but not surprising) that our density is stagnating if not taking a step back in ITB residential neighborhoods. Population density is likely taking an even bigger hit with less kids per family and empty nesters.

By allowing such huge homes, we have room to grow but aren’t using it very well. Even a single family home to a two story duplex or coupled townhome would provide so much more housing over time.

I think the density is increasing in a lot of areas.

SFH neighborhood density is not not the key to our city’s future. Besides the ebbs and flows of generational change in them, SFH neighborhoods are typically very stable entities. It’s on the edges of the neighborhoods, where they transition to commercial and industrial uses, where the opportunities are.
While it’s possible to get rid of SFH zoning in the future, I don’t expect that to happen anytime soon. There’s just too much power and too many votes in the city that reside in SFH neighborhoods.
That said, it would be fun to get into a philosophical conversation with council members who live in expensive $/S.F. SFH neighborhoods and propose that we get rid of that zoning to address housing affordability. Then watch them squirm! I’m thinking of one member in particular.

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I have gone back through and looked at each ITB CACs info in IMAPS to get the official number of new builds. My original map was based on zillow data for sold in 2018. Here is what the new maps look like.


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