In a spirit of reflection I’m revisiting this list:
Quite a lot there. As usual, I was very wrong about a lot of these. My dead last beat my first place! Let’s do it again.
- Weld/Hammell Drive Phase II/Tower 3
- Smokey Hollow Ph. 3
- RUS Tower
- 330 W. Hargett Residential Tower (Legends)
- NCEA Site - (Revised down, not proposed as towers anymore)
- Edison Office tower
- Creamery Phase II
- City Gateway Hotel, 130 Kindley St
- Nash Square Condos
- Peace & N. West Street, Raleigh Development Company
- Tidal Realty 20 Story Residential, NE corner of Lenoir & Wilmington
- Moore Square Apartments (currently Loden)
- Turnbridge Seaboard Towers
- Raleigh Crossing Ph II, 327 Hillsborough
- Vela, Morgan & Person Streets
- Cabarrus and Dawson Apartments
- Hotel, SE corner of Lenoir & Wilmington
- 201 Morgan St Apartments
- Nexus/News & Observer Development
- Zimmer Capitol Blvd tower
- CAM Martin St. Site
- Blue Ridge Realty 12-Story Glenwood Tower
- Highwoods Goodwill Site, Hargett & S Harrington
- Heritage Properties/Calavera site
- 121 Fayetteville
This doesn’t take into account the time any of these may be developed, only the likelihood of their being developed at all within the next ~5 years. It is mostly based on vibes. It also doesn’t include Omni or State Education Campus, each of which were proposed after the above list and (mostly) broke ground since this one.
Here are a few thoughts:
a. My hope going into 2026 is that most of the concerns keeping projects in neutral (interest rates, construction costs, rental rates) will have been present for long enough that developers playing wait-and-see will have to move forward or go home. Those backed by investment funds will need to do something here soon.
b. To my knowledge 18 and below are either suspended or functionally dead. I only put Nexus/N&O at the top because that’s too good of a location not to get something. I am on record as thinking that the current owners are not the ones to see it through.
c. I waffled about where to put the RUS Tower but I’m optimistic that the public financing portion of this has the developers tied down, and the affordable housing component has been mostly put to bed.
d. I feel better about the Nash Square condos than this might reflect, but because they are subject to the vicissitudes of the condo market it felt prudent to place them lower.
e. I continue to believe that Smoky Hollow Phase III will gain momentum once the Devereux Meadows Park is built.
f. This is an enviable roster, reflecting really well on DTR.
Happy New Year