To be fair, the cities and (especially) suburbs out west didn’t develop more densely because they had foresight; they developed more densely because they were restricted by either geography, access to water, or both. In the southeast in particular, most cities weren’t restricted by either geography or access to water. There are some exceptions like Miami that is restricted by geography, but even they didn’t have foresight, or they would have reigned in even the dense suburban sprawl. The same could be said for greater Los Angeles, etc. In the end, nearly all of new development across the country was shaped by/for the priority use of private automobiles, and that requirement was shoved into every single decision made for decades.
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you had me at “stat”.
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It’s interesting that the growth of Charlotte’s zone continues to outpace the Triangle’s zone. Then again, I have also seen some Carolina demography pages associated with UNC that never showed Wake passing Mecklenburg through the next few decades. …so there’s that.
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If trends continue which state do you think North Carolina will overtake next in total population and when? It seems like it will only be a matter of time. Maybe 20 years?
I was actually just working this out in excel. From the updated 2019 estimates, NC grew 10% between Apr-2010 and Jul-2019, whereas Georgia grew 9.6%. At that rate we won’t overtake them until 2050.
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Yeah I was thinking we would overtake Ohio or Illinois before Georgia…
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So, if the trends over the last 9 years (2010-2019) held up exactly (which of course they won’t/can’t) we’d overtake:
- OH in 2031
- IL in 2035
- PA in 2040
- GA in 2050
- NY in 2080
- CA in 2350
And we would never catch TX or FL because their growth rates are higher than ours.
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We might be having this same talk in ten years because we could be very close to passing Ohio in population with the 2030 census.
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Yeah, I think that the general wisdom is that both GA and NC will climb together and pass OH in the 2030s and then Illinois sometime in the 2040s. PA might be in reach as well by then, especially if they start to lose population like Illinois is doing. Their growth isn’t very strong.
If for some reason NC takes off like TX and FL have, then all bets are off on those dates; it would be much quicker.
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What effect does everyone think the pandemic will have on growth, especially in relation to other states?
My guess is that short term in-migration will fall steeply as fewer people want to move and there are few jobs causing moves. Medium term, I think it may actually increase in-migration to NC because with higher overall unemployment throughout the US, more people will move to areas with better economies. When unemployment is really low, people are less incentivized to move because they can find work where they are.
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Could be a LOT more people may want to leave New York City after this is all said and done…
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As a Raleigh native now living in NYC (and I moved apartments during this crisis)…I think what the City has recognized is that there are too many people here for the open space that is available. It’s not that there are too many people overall, but there are too many people without access to open space and the ability to social distance. There was a report out last week that even the sidewalks are not large enough to social distance. So, effectively the City has been not been designed for a crisis like this.
Will we see more people leave the city? IDK…I mean, people have been saying that for years, decades. I just think NYC is too important and too magnetic for it to truly shrink away. But, I do believe some other urban areas in the US will see a rise in their prominence.
That being said, I don’t think we will ever see NYC be 10+ mil city proper ever…it’s currently sitting at 8.5-ish. But, I do think we see it finally crack 25mil in the CSA.
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Yeah, I have read a few articles about people leaving New York. Right now, it is mostly anecdotal, and as @NYCRDU said people have been predicting a mass exodus for decades (notably after 9-11).
This WSJ article discusses people leaving NYC, how the city’s population has been declining the last several
years, and how a large exodus would negatively impact the city. Also says some executives are worried the city will have to raise corporate income taxes
People Were Leaving New York City Before the Coronavirus. Now What? - WSJ
I love New York and hope it can handle this as it has so many other challenges throughout its history.
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My neighbor lives/works in NYC Monday to Thursday and then spends the weekends with his family in Raleigh.
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That’s a crazy work schedule. I guess he’s enjoying his time not traveling right now.
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I know a New Yorker who moved here on September 12, 2019 (Ironic its the day after the 9/11 anniversary) he’s my boxing coach and he left for several reasons one cause its expensive to live. Two because of the weather the day I asked him (it was snowing in New York) when I asked him that was other reason and it was snowing hard that day like 10 inches, I think. He had a home girl there that sent him a pic on his phone of the snow. And then the Third is their dirtiness that’s terrible rats on the subway Yuck!!! And a lots of other reasons. I asked him why so many Northerners are moving here cause he said Between New York and Florida it’s too hot in Florida and too cold In New York and this is like the real south. I later said “well D.C. is the south why not there”, and he said “yeah that true but its snows there too”, and I said “it does too here”. “He said yeah I know” he chuckled but he said. Raleigh Charlotte are like midway point between the South and the North to them. Not to Hot Not to Cold. There like the midway point in the south like when on the national weather radar.
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There’s been a mass exodus from New York before in the 1800s. However, the went to other northern cities, not the South. While here down south Jim Crow was what regained New York’s population growth, after years of racism and racist policies and lynching the mass migration up north happened. Blacks were tried of Jim Crow and racist policies down south they went north causing the migration which reopened New York’s growth all over again in the late-1800s and start of the 1900s.
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Look, there’s a lot of reasons for the dirtiness of the city, and it all stems from the city being unable to maintain its infrastructure. For one thing, it’s a tax issue – if wealthier individuals were taxed the correct amount, then there would be an influx of money to spend on city projects. Second, the MTA, which oversees the subway system, is not a city agency. It’s a state agency run by the governor. The city has very little control over its own subway system. Third, the rise, and then fall, and now a slow rise in how we handle our waste. Recycling should’ve been happening since the 70s, but we ebb and flow on what is acceptable, and then it’s a habit and culture issue too. Fourth, think about the twisted web we weave when we get into poorer neighborhoods that have had decades of minimal public or private investment, and the only things available are scraps to just keep the already decrepit infrastructure from falling apart – see NYCHA. Fifth – the rampant homeless crisis across the globe (not just NYC) which has politicians and the wealthy trying to shovel the homeless out of sight rather than actually helping them by providing safe housing and drug rehabilitation, among other things.
So, yes, the city is dirty. And yes, it should be blamed for the dirtiness. But also, there’s so much more behind that grit. The same can be said for how expensive the city is too. Raleigh would be just as expensive if we allowed real estate developers to control the prices of living in the city like they do in NYC.
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Apparently the Census estimates for cities is coming out soon, well at least according to posts on City-Data. I wonder what the numbers have in store for Raleigh?
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