Referencing a previous post where I demonstrate the tiny footprint in which Raleigh’s MSA operates, it’s the smallest one in the nation to have added more than 200,000 people this decade.
Adding to this accomplishment is Raleigh’s MSA numbers this past year vis-a-vis the new darling city in America: Nashville. Now, remember, Nashville’s MSA is nearly triple the size of Raleigh’s and it is the lion’s share of its CSA.
Raleigh added 24,461
Nashville added 24,717
At the CSA level, the Triangle put distance on Nashville by outgrowing it by nearly 7000.
Raleigh-Durham CSA: 2,042,649 (up from 2,006,275)
Nashville CSA: 2,032,353 (up from 2,002,625)
Oh, and the Triangle’s CSA is still smaller in physical size than Nashville’s MSA, no less its CSA.
Thank you for all the latest information…
I used to download all the MSA’s, and CSA’s information and it was color coded with drop down cities and counties therein 
…but I got sooooooooo busy and life has a way of getting in the way…lol
I’m just not buying that Atlanta alone can drive the sort of growth projections for GA that suggest its rapid climb. I like NC’s future better with two growth centers; it’s the model that has accelerated both Texas’ and Florida’s growth. If the Triad could catch fire, NC could rapidly ascend.
I agree with you. With the future being tech, Raleigh-Durham could have an Austin moment and I also like Charlotte’s future as a fin tech hub. Raleigh and Charlotte growth and rising cost already have spillover effects for the Triad which by the way currently has one of the fastest rent growth in the country at close to 5% year over year (www.yardimatrix.com)
This article is from a good blog NewGeography, which shows and summarizes the recent metro growths rates. The blog produces a ton of great info on demographics, but also gets into urban/suburban growth patterns, transit, etc.
There’s a typo in the article where Charlotte is attributed one of Raleigh’s ranking achievements. Go figure…
Knowing that the RTP to RDU Airport area is one of the largest concentrations of jobs in our region (though less dense than DTR and DTD), how might the MSA definition be applied differently if this area were incorporated and had substantial amounts of residential development and population?
Number of Jobs (Census LEHD 2015)
- Research Triangle Park (CT 37063980100) - 18,612
- RTP Adjacent Area (Page Road, TW Alexander) (CT 37063002028) - 16,972
- Downtown Durham (CT 370630022001, 370630007001, 370630023001) - 21,515
- Downtown Raleigh (CT 371830501001, 371830503002, 371830509001) - 36,276
Additionally, Raleigh continues to add density and will continue to do so, especially if as a City we provide opportunities for walkable neighborhoods and transit supportive development.
Not sure if I missed it, but does anyone have a link to where there are projections that show Wake passing Mecklenburg County in population in 2020?
Is Duke part of DT Durham? Cause if so, those numbers are off.
The state continues to project Mecklenburg staying slightly ahead of Wake until July 2032. It’s ridiculous how out of sync they are with the US Census annual estimates for Wake.
https://files.nc.gov/ncosbm/demog/countytotals_2030_2038.html
While the US Census has Meck at 1.093M and Wake at 1.092M in 2018, the state has Meck nearly spot on its US Census projection while estimating Wake at 19K less than theirs.
https://files.nc.gov/ncosbm/demog/countytotals_2010_2019.html
No, I didn’t include Duke in number pulled for Downtown Durham. Downtown Raleigh also does not include NC State.
@John I appreciate that context. I travel a lot for work and meet people throughout North America. My point-of-view is people outside of North Carolina know Durham and Chapel Hill before they know Raleigh because of basketball and Duke’s ivy league status. I think this feeds the “pro-Durham-Chapel Hill metro” idea / narrative. But the statistics you cite in this discussion make a strong argument we are stronger together. Bringing them together as one economic measurement will be good for everyone.
That’s interesting, because that’s not my experience at all, and I work in 5 continents. In fact, I have plenty of experience with people thinking that Duke or UNC is in Raleigh. As a State grad, that gets quickly corrected. 
I do agree, as I’ve argued forever, that the Triangle is WAY more powerful when combined. I also participate in the forums on City-Data and there is a lot of that chatter puts Raleigh in a lower tier of city simply because of the MSA designation, regardless of our MSA’s context.
Guess mixing up Duke being in Raleigh is better than some clients I was working with in Boston, a wile back, that were SHOCKED to learn that Duke was in the south. Yes they were AH’s.
Of all the places that could be paying attention to how the Durham/Raleigh CSAs should be considered one MSA again, I found the RTA (basically a pep rally for highway/transit expansion, funded by many major employers throughout the Triangle) writing a short piece about it.
I wonder if this means people will take this idea more seriously, now?
Interesting, but I suspect the idea will be more triggering than unifying. I also find it interesting that the author seems to forget that the Triangle was, for many years, a singular MSA. That didn’t change until this Century. Instead of the unite narrative, it should be re-unite.
| Base2010 | Jul.2017 | Jul.2018 | 1yr #Growth | 8yr #Growth | 8yr %Growth | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh | 404,073 | 465,524 | 469,298 | 3,774 | 65,225 | 16.14% | |
| Cary | 135,777 | 165,897 | 168,160 | 2,263 | 32,383 | 23.85% | |
| Apex | 37,621 | 50,444 | 53,852 | 3,408 | 16,231 | 43.14% | |
| Wake Forest | 30,009 | 42,157 | 44,046 | 1,889 | 14,037 | 46.78% | |
| Holly Springs | 24,710 | 35,157 | 36,749 | 1,592 | 12,039 | 48.72% | |
| Garner | 25,776 | 28,782 | 30,502 | 1,720 | 4,726 | 18.33% | |
| Fuquay Varina | 18,008 | 27,849 | 29,200 | 1,351 | 11,192 | 62.15% | |
| Morrisville | 18,585 | 26,447 | 27,453 | 1,006 | 8,868 | 47.72% | |
| Knightdale | 11,403 | 15,822 | 17,423 | 1,601 | 6,020 | 52.79% | |
| Rolesville | 3,780 | 7,637 | 8,111 | 474 | 4,331 | 114.58% | |
| Wendell | 5,838 | 7,235 | 7,809 | 574 | 1,971 | 33.76% | |
| Zebulon | 4,457 | 5291 | 5,646 | 355 | 1,189 | 26.68% | |
| Municipal Total | 720,037 | 878,242 | 898,249 | 20,007 | 178,212 | 24.75% |
These are based on the American Community Survey from the Census website.
Some thoughts about Raleigh in particular.
Each year, the survey makes adjustments to the prior year’s estimate. For 2018, the 2017 estimate was increased by several hundred but then paired with the slowest municipal growth for 2018 that I’ve seen statistically in decades.
Both Atlanta and Nashville have seen something similar happen to their estimates in the last two years. After torrid growth, the brakes have been put on the last two years. I suspect this has to do with the fact that the Census grossly overestimated Miami, and especially Atlanta in the run-up to the 2010 Census.
The slowing municipal growth numbers and rates in Raleigh should be “weaponized” as developers seek variances to go taller and provide more housing. Nothing like slowing growth to get the attention of city leaders who want to increase their tax base.
Miami passed Raleigh this year in municipal population and did so in less than 36 square miles of land. There’s the model to follow when it comes to growth!
From what it looks like, Raleigh fell again behind Colorado Springs as well, but also passed both Omaha and Long Beach to remain the country’s 41st most populated city. Throughout the decade, Raleigh has been trading places with Omaha (which continues to annex) and Colorado Springs (which has a larger municipal limit).
Wake County has nearly 200,000 people not living in a municipality, which I think is much higher number than Mecklenburg (but I haven’t counted it). I’d love to know just how much of that is in Raleigh’s ETJ. My guess is that it’s many tens of thousands.
Do we know how much of the growth in the suburbs is organic growth, and how much of it is growth due to annexation?
Raleigh’s growth has slowed a lot in nominal terms in the last eight years, but only because a lot of the past growth was due to annexations, whereas the city hasn’t annexed any significant amount of land in the last eight years. So that 16 percent growth in 8 years is pretty much all organic growth, which is actually not that shabby.
Admittedly it is pretty alarming that the suburbs are growing at a much faster rate than Raleigh is, but some those numbers are from a very small base, and I wonder how much the numbers might change if you could look at only organic growth. Also, might be high time for Raleigh to do some more annexations.
I don’t have all of the details; I can only speculate.
My guess is that the suburban growth is mainly annexation as developers petition for the annexation as they plan new communities on the edges of the burbs.
As for Raleigh, the laws that prevent Raleigh from annexing at will (especially its swiss cheese holes and edges) has made it pretty easy to observe the efforts to densify the existing footprint. That said, not all of Raleigh’s post 2010 growth has been infill. There are some projects on Raleigh’s edges as well that have been annexed, though it’s been really minimal compared to previous decades.
Looking at the yearly projections, you can see the deceleration of municipal growth in the last few years.
Geography April 1, 2010 Population Estimate (as of July 1)
Census Estimates Base 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Raleigh city, North Carolina 403,892 404,073 406,355 413,932 423,095 431,102 439,347 449,427 459,194 465,524 469,298
This story should be compelling to the city council to approve more variances to the UDO to keep growing the city’s tax base. Frankly, as 1970s/1980s era infrastructure ages, we should all want a widening tax base.
Some places where future city growth can come from that aren’t necessarily downtown include:
- redevelopment of aging 2 & 3 story suburban apartment complexes on large parcels of land. There are tons of these projects in the city that can add many more housing units on existing land. Some examples of old apartments on property that could be transformed include Quail Ridge Apts, The Lakes Apartments, and all the 1960s and 70s apartments out there: many of them are 2 stories and sprawly.
- redevelopment of old strip centers into mixed use projects that include housing. Cameron Village is a good example of this.
- redevelopment of big box store land that becomes too valuable for its owners to pass up. This might include places like old Walmart stores that end up moving further out of the city or to its edges. I can imagine the Walmart on New Hope Church near Wake Forest Road going away, as well as the entire pleasant valley promenade shopping center in the future.
- warehouse space: I can imagine warehouse space being moved further out and all of that land being redeveloped into mixed use and housing as well. The entire stretch of Atlantic Ave north of the Beltline might see significant transformation in decades to come.
Plenty of potential spots for more infill / redevelopment. The abandoned Kroger site at 6 forks / WF rd. comes to mind. That is a huge plot of land in a now mostly dead shopping center.