Interesting data but I think we should compare ourselves with boom towns of similar size plus similar or better desirability in the U.S.
Portland, OR
Denver
Austin
Nashville
Pittsburgh
Charlotte
Columbus, OH
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I hear ya, and that can be done as well, so knock yourself out! The links are there in my previous post. Iâd love to read your comparison and point of view on it.
As for the ones that I chose to compare, I did so because they have more built environment similarities and populations. That is to say that they all have some level of post WW2 suburban sprawl and similar post war type development. Cities in the West, while post war boomtowns in their own right, had a much different suburban development model that was more dense and responded to their terrain and climate.
That said, the cities that most mimic the Triangleâs development pattern are probably Nasvhille, Austin, Charlotte, Orlando, Jacksonville, and The Triad to name a few. None are perfect comparisons, with each having its own differentiator.
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Hereâs another interesting comparison of Raleigh vs Durham MSA by % of their combined total.
1990:
Raleigh MSA: 58.7%
Durham MSA: 41.3%
2000:
Raleigh MSA: 62.8%
Durham MSA: 37.2%
2010:
Raleigh MSA: 66.05%
Durham MSA: 33.95%
2017:
Raleigh MSA: 68.05%
Durham MSA: 31.95%
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Now, the really important question is . . . how do we compare to Charlotte? 
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based on link John provided Charlotte-Concord is
Area: 16,725 km² pop 2,709,112 â Density: 162.0/km² 2017 â Change: +1.67 per year 2000-2007
[Raleigh - Durham - Cary]
Area: 12,071 km² Pop 2,006,275 â Density: 166.2/km² 2017 â Change: +1.98%/year 2010 â 2017
Often asked question is when will RDU catch up with CTL. A straight line projection at current growth rates, a quick excel cal says (some really big numbers but) in 98 years.
year___CTL pop_____RDU pop____Diff
2116 13,960,998.88 13,975,785.19 100.11% 
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Great work!
A caveat to all of this is what will happen to future designations of MSAs and CSAs over time. Will they expand? Will they contract? Will they combine? Will they split?
All in all, both greater Charlotte and the greater Triangle are on growth tears that make most American cities jealous. Many states, especially the ones that are near the size of NC, would be lucky to have one such metro while NC has two.
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FWIW, the Census released its estimates for last July. The Raleigh MSA lands at 1,362,540 in the latest estimate. Raleighâs MSA lands in the top 10 fastest growing MSAs in the US since 2010, and is the only NC MSA to do so. Austin (3rd fastest growth) and Orlando (tied with Raleighâs growth for the 9th/10th spots) are the only MSAs in the top ten that have more than a million people.
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Buried in the news is that Wake County is only about 1,600 residents behind Mecklenburg (1,902,305 vs. 1,903,901 respectively). Wake County will most likely be NCâs most populous county by the 2020 Census.
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Are you sure you donât have the 9s and 0s transposed here? 1,093,901 vs 1,092,305
As for Wake passing Meck, itâs been on track as a likely 2020 event for years now, so no surprise to me on that. Even so, the stateâs own numbers arenât validating the trend. That said, both Wake and especially Meck are slowing down in growth as land gets more scarce/expensive. Like all larger cities, growth will be pushed to adjacent counties. We are seeing it before our eyes with Cary expanding west into Chatham, which ironically adds to Durhamâs MSA and not Raleighâs.
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Some interesting maps that show how fast the growth rate is in the Triangle counties, and how Raleighâs MSA is geographically the smallest one to land among the MSAs that have added more than 200,000 people since the last Census.
Whatâs the link to this buried treasure?
I had seen this newsâŚin the N&O this amâŚ
Also, the 1,600 separation figure is for July 2018. And so, I would say that Wake probably added enough to surpass Meck July 2019?
Highly like that, if the Census numbers are to be believed, Wake has already passed Meck; we just wonât have Census acknowledgment of that until this time next year. If these estimates can be believed, the 2020 Census will likely have Wake with about a 5,000 person edge on Meck.
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If RDU and CTL keep same share of population in 100 years NC as a state would have Pop of >50,000,000. Again this is a straight line projection, there are lotâs of things that would likely make this number much smaller. I hope those things are good not bad. If this came true would imply a USA population of 1,500,000,000 (thats billion!!) and world of 38 billion.Do not think world would be a good place to live if population grows that much over next 100 years. Maybe time to expand to Mars and other places. 
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Yeah, clearly itâs not going to be straight line forward ad infinitum. We are already seeing a slowing of the growth rates in both Charlotte and The Triangle. You canât keep adding the same percentage growth on top of an ever increasing baseline.
Itâs more likely that growth will be a squiggly line up with ebbs and flows in the rate, with impactful spurts caused by dramatic employment spikes. If Amazon had chosen Raleigh, that would be an example of such an event.
Interesting graphic:
Only a matter of time until NC is 6th most populous State. If patterns change/intensify we might overtake GA as well and land at 5th
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Yep, I know itâs 99% likely wrong, but do not know of a way to adjust for unknown future events. Well other than maybe invent a time machine. 
EDIT: just found this graphic from UN.
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âWake County grew by 20,419 residents in the year between July 1, 2017, and the same date in 2018 â the highest number of new residents in the stateâ
That comes out to roughly 55 people per day (This includes newborn)
https://www.bizjournals.com/triangle/news/2019/04/18/new-census-data-show-wake-county-population-grew.html?iana=hpmvp_trig_news_headline
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Only a matter of time until NC is 6th most populous State
Your list of projections has us at 8th at the highest?
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IL and PA are experiencing slowing and at times even negative growth per this forecast