Well if we maintained the growth we had last year, we would hit it with the 2025 estimates. But that’s probably a bit ambitious.
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Sorry I’m being so pessimistic. I really need to stop reading all of those “estimates” provided by the experts and remember that so many factors come into place inadvertently affecting the population outcomes. 
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Yeah, I still remember when Atlanta lost over 100,000 people between the 2009 estimates and the 2010 census. So I take it all with a grain of salt (but also fun, our gap with Mecklenburg is widening!).
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I’m guessing Raleigh will pass 500k by 2025. Greensboro probably has passed 300k just now. Durham is at 287k and will pass Greensboro (and 300k) with its faster rate of growth maybe in 2027ish.
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Numbers like those were reported a while ago. Did they tweak them?
I’m not so sure that Raleigh reaches 500K by 2025, but certainly before the end of the decade.
Raleigh would need a lot of infill multifamily redevelopment to accelerate that schedule. Another wild card that might accelerate the population would be elderly homeowners vacating their single family homes for the next generation of families. There were a lot of suburban homes built in the city in the 70s and 80s that still have their original owners occupying them. My mother is one of them.
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Maybe, I missed the earlier numbers perhaps. Census quickfacts is showing a different number (about 500 less). This data set seems to have been released yesterday. I don’t know why the discrepancy.
It sounds like an update/adjustments on the 2022 numbers. It will be interesting to see if quickfacts gets updated as well.
Wake is likely right at 1.2M now since the reported data is based on July 1st each year, and that 1.175M number was based on 2022. Wake has been reliably adding 20K-ish each calendar year.
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Someone created a map with 2020 populations for areas bounded by Interstates. It’s mostly useful for figuring out how many people live “inside the beltway”:
https://alasdairrae.github.io/intrastates/#9/35.8234/-79.7566
Some figures from NC and nearby:
Raleigh inside I-440: 115,631
Raleigh inside I-540 and outside I-440, north of I-40 and I-87 (including west wedge OTB but south of Wade): 228,867
Greensboro northern loop: 197,635
Greensboro southern loop: 53,959
Charlotte inside I-277: 16,102
Charlotte inside I-485 east half: 552,314
Charlotte inside I-485 west half: 204,461
Just for comparison:
Atlanta north wedge of ITP: 216,710
Atlanta NE wedge of ITP: 303,342
Atlanta SE wedge of ITP: 81,662
Atlanta airport wedge of ITP: 8,489
Atlanta SW wedge of ITP: 114,425
Atlanta NW wedge of ITP: 135,932
Atlanta total ITP: 860,560
Kind of surprised how few people live ITB. It’s comparable to, say, the 114K who live between the I-895 and I-695 crossings of Baltimore Harbor (Dundalk, Rosedale, Brooklyn), or the 115K who live ITB in… Augusta, GA.
That said, the map has a few big shortcomings. It only counts areas fully bordered by Interstates, not areas bordered by an ocean or international border. It doesn’t count stub-end Interstates, or non-Interstate highways – so places like the northeast or Texas, where lots of highways are state routes, have awfully high numbers.
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Worth considering is that a sizable portion of ITB, especially along the southern edge adjacent to I-440, is parkland or natural areas and unsuitable for development. If those areas were developed at the current average ITB density, that population number could rise significantly.
(yikes, those new Google Maps colors are awful 
)
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It’s interesting but not necessarily useful without corresponding land area calculations resulting in understanding ppl/m2. All in all, thanks for sharing.
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As of January 5, 2024
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Thanks for the update!
The land area just tells me the incredible population growth potential in Garner. That town could easily be 50,000 without even growing its land area.
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the airport has been called raleigh durham for ever, the county border on 70 is undistinghable…likely to happen soon.
as a former raleigh residnent…with regard to big events and some small ones…i drove to university theater in durham to see old punk bands, drove to durham for some bullls games, dead at the dean dome…this was some decades back but how much longer does it take by vehicle now than then…to me it just wasnt much issue to cross borders
So, the Census finally released their official estimates for MSAs and CSAs, and the new designation of the CSA didn’t disappoint. What goes around comes around. Lee and Harnett Counties are returned to the Triangle, and how we stack up against some of our closest population peers is detailed below. The 6 metros below represent those who are our closest population peers by either CSA, or in the case of Austin: its MSA.
FWIW, the 2020 numbers are based on the new designations. Next to the the 2020 Census number, I have included the ranking in population among the 6 metros. After the 2023 estimate number, I have included both the change in population and the new ranking.
Raleigh-Durham-Cary CSA:
2020: 2,242,298 (6th)
2023: 2,368,947 (+126,649) (3rd)
Cincinnati-Wilmington CSA:
2020: 2,291,803 (3rd)
2023: 2,313,417 (+21,614) (6th)
Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro CSA:
2020: 2,250,270 (5th)
2023: 2,350,738 (+100,468) (5th)
Las Vegas-Henderson CSA:
2020: 2,317,063 (2nd)
2023: 2,392,293 (+75,230) (2nd)
San Juan PR CSA:
2020: 2,414,593 (1st)
2023: 2,360.082 (-54,511) (4th)
Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos MSA:
2020: 2,283,379 (4th)
2023: 2,473,275 (+189,896) (1st)
It’s just a matter of time before the Triangle jumps Las Vegas, but it looks like Austin will remain the lead of this group going forward for some time to come. As both Austin and Raleigh traverse up the population ladder, they will soon be compared to places like Sacramento and Kansas City, and shrinking metros like Pittsburgh.
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County population estimates have also been released for July 2023, and Wake was sitting at 1.19M. Certainly Wake is now over 1.2M.
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Chatham growing faster at 7%. Eventually will overtake Wake county, steal its hockey team, and actually build a downtown MLB stadium in Pittsboro. John will be the mayor.
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Wake is now the largest county in the southeast, only behind the counties of major metropolitan areas Atl,Mia,Houston, Dallas,etc.
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Yeah, carve off Florida and Texas and Wake is pretty dominant.