ITB New Home Builds

ADUsSomeday · May 3, 2019, 9:42pm

I have reached the half-way point in this review of new housing from 2018 for Raleigh, NC’s Inside the beltline (I-440) area. 7 CAC’s down, 7 to go. I started with the exterior ones which had less new housing, & now there will be more action per CAC.

There are approximately 20,000 acres of land ITB, & these first 7 CAC’s covered ~10,196 acres(4,532 +5,664). Little over half the surface area, but only 12% of new homes. For the CAC’s I left 142 new SFH’s were built but only 41 of those were net new . That is pretty crazy

Messed up a cell on google doc for the last tweet. The homes left are 72% of net new homes ITB. Not some number over 100%

Will · May 3, 2019, 9:59pm

We looked at buying one of those townhomes and they are MASSIVE.

R-Dub · May 3, 2019, 11:05pm

I looked at those things in North Ridge for 20 years. Can’t believe they are all still there but they are. My parents just moved out of North Ridge after a 40 year stay.

ADUsSomeday · May 3, 2019, 11:18pm

What turned you away from them? Did they seem like a good deal?

Will · May 3, 2019, 11:58pm

We thought it was way too big for what we wanted but also the highway was really loud, especially in the master bedroom.

Good deal for the price and location though imo. Just not for us.

OberlinSouth · May 4, 2019, 1:34am

Really noticing this thread for the first time.

For the West district the historic Method African American community and school are located there along Method Road.

Many of the SF houses in the southern part of the area were built in the 60’s and 70’s and still seem to be occupied by the original owners. There is some rapid gentrification along the Western Blvd. corridor OTB near Powell Drive, but ITB closer to NCSU (and along the wolfline) the 70’s SF houses are generally more valuable as student rental properties than as tear downs or renovations.

This is a interesting area because of the student apartments, rental properties, and the proximity to Centennial Campus. A tremendous amount of student housing has been built along Hillsborough with more to come, where the center of student housing used to be along the Avent Ferry Corridor down to Gorman Street. I’m wondering if the Hillsborough housing is going to suck the students out of the Avent Ferry corridor or if the University is expanding faster than the private housing is added. I also wonder if the ongoing transition from an Old Campus focus to Centennial Campus is going to eventually attract redevelopment to Avent Ferry when Hillsborough is built out from Morgan to Gorman.

The BRT will also be going through this area along Western and I think it’s unclear what the impacts might be.

ADUsSomeday · May 4, 2019, 1:45pm

Makes sense. I think the land near highways is going to get a proportionately larger share of new development because less people are invested in keeping development out there.

ADUsSomeday · May 4, 2019, 2:12pm

5 Points CAC

Going to take a look at the 5 points CAC. This one of the two CAC’s w/ over $1,000,000 averages price for new homes in 2019. Had 8 condos, & 13 SFHs, but only 3 where net new # teardowns . Boarders are N. of Peace, W. of Capital, E. of Glenwood, & S. of Anderson. 1,290 acres

Let’s look at the condos first. I need to admit that I might have been fooled by the data on these ones. The buildings is 620 Wade, and does not seem to be all the way finished (or was not in 2018). But, it was under construction & 8 of them were presold. Zillow lied & said 2018

I looked through all this data back in January & found 8 units for sale as part of this building at the time. Something must be wrong with that because the building has 29 units over 5 floors. https://620wade.com/ Average price over $1,000,000.

Update: Drove by these the other day and they are not done.

I am kind of a fan of this building. Prices are very high for sure, but I think it is a good way to get some tax revenue out of rich people. If 29 units at $1,000,000 a piece & our property tax rate is .9% then this one building is making $261,000 a year in new property tax.

Was on an empty lot and is right next to main roads and good existing utilities. Pretty good for 1.13 acres. Street view Dec. 2018 and 2009

More

The SFH’s are somewhat spread around the CAC. 9 SFH were torn down just to build a bigger one. 3 where examples of tear down one to make more than one new home. One Single family home was built buy tearing down a duplex. 2 SFH’s where infill where no home had been before

I think I will just do some rapid fire before and after pics of these 1 for 1 tear downs.

These make me suspicious because just drawings.

Back to real pics

Last 1 for 1

This one was a duplex. that blended in VERY WELL. Now it will be a really large house.

On Jarvis St., a mansion in 2007 has been replaced with two large homes. I guess I will call it a win. Very large home to have torn down, so I guess it is not just the ranches. When I see homes over 5,000 square feet I always wonder why we don’t just allow 4-plex’s there.

Here are those two infill homes. One is a bit ugly.

Any thoughts out there on what is and what is not going on in the 5-points CAC?

Would love to figure out how many people or residential units are in each CAC. Let’s say there were 29 condos and 3 new Single Family homes in 5-points. If there were 1000 residential units in the CAC that would be a 3.1% increase in 2018. Anyone know how to find this data?

5 points is just small enough that I can kind of fit in my thoughts on all the zoning going on in one pic. Would love thoughts or other perspectives.

Someone shared this info with me
“not so easy way - go to imaps and use the polygon tool to select the CAC area, then all properties in that CAC would be highlighted, select the “export to CSV” option and then put in spreadsheet. You could then sort house type (ie single family etc) and add up ea category”

This is fun…

1,783 Single Family Homes in the (bad lines I drew around the) CAC. 9 x four family buildings. 6 x Garden Apartments, 7 x three family buildings, and 42 two family (duplex) units. 6 x Residential Conversions, need to check those out, and 1 x Dormitory (next to a church)

Lets say that adds up to 2,047 units (I did 20 units per garden apartment…) Then the 32 new units would be a 1.5% increase in units to live in for the CAC. How much is Raleigh growing a year? Without 620 Wade it would have been 1/10 of a % growth in units. That is low.

This data is really fascinating. Thanks for showing me how to export it. Says these two homes are the oldest in 5-Points. One on Willis Ave. and the other on Fairview Rd. Both built in 1900

I also looked up how many residential buildings have been built each decade. Some interesting cycles. 70s were really slow. This counts an apartment as one building so not 100% on what happened in 5 points

I have been diving into these numbers more, so learned a few things since this post. The 70s were just slow for sure. Most of the homes in the 80s are actually “condos” around Fred Fletcher park. Will have a better breakdown of this tonight

If you look at the general (not great) zillow data you can see that development in the 60’s started leaving downtown, and that just accelerated in the 70’s. Lots of homes built, just up north.

Christopher · May 4, 2019, 3:28pm

That’s a lot of houses built in the 2100s.

ADUsSomeday · May 4, 2019, 7:41pm

Ha! good catch. While I was looking at 5 points someone on twitter helped me out with a way to pull an excel file for a selected area in Imaps to get data on every parcel. The numbers on buildings built and being able to see all of the little multifamily buildings has been pretty cool.

ADUsSomeday · May 4, 2019, 7:42pm

I also, don’t have a good way to see how many of those homes replaced older ones, so that 133 might just be 30 net new.

ADUsSomeday · May 4, 2019, 7:54pm

Got some updated numbers. More units that previously thought, so 1.05% growth in 2018. Interesting trend of SFH’s really picking up in 2004, I wonder if that is when the 1 for 1 SFH tear downs really got started.

Hm. There are soooo many garden apartments in 5-points. Had to look at each one to find the # 's then update the total numbers. Now 218 was just a .8% increase for 5-points. I put together some stuff on the types built each decade too. Check out this “townhouse” from the 20’s

ADUsSomeday · May 4, 2019, 8:09pm

Here is a bit of a sub-thread where I look at a smaller portion of 5-points.
I thought I have moved on, but I got really curious about all the townhouses built in 5-points in the last 20 years. I don’t think of Townhouses at all when I think 5-points. Most of this is in the northeast of the CAC. Looks like it actually made an interested experiment area

Interesting Experiment, Right in the same area there are older big lot 4 homes/acre, then 6 homes per acre, then a planned 10/acre community, then actual townhouses. All right in walking distance to each other.

The area with townhouses seems to have been something industrial before they were built. Zillow seems to think they are all in the $500,000s. Not cheap townhouses.

Looks like they sold a few years ago from the high $300’s to middle $400’s. Total Tax value of 34.4 Million. Should mean new taxes to the city of ~$309,000 a year. Out of 9.3 acres.

Moving over to the planned development next to it. Nice homes with garages via alleys in the back. New Urbanism(ish) like Renaissance Park. Has a big wall against the main street though.

BUT, unlike the townhouse built on a parking lot, there was one of those Garden Apartments on this site back in 2006. The new stuff does seem like it is denser overall, but the old buildings looked like they had smaller units so not sure what the net net is.

When you look at price, it’s a clear example of home SFH’s are just more expensive than Townhomes. All of these sold for for $200,000 to $300,000 more than townhouses built about the same time. Zillow now thinks they are worth over $1,000,000 ← 2x townhouses across the street

Moving West just a bit we hit Single Family Homes only zoning. R-6 (aka 6 units per acre). The highlighted part has 50 homes with an average of .436 acres. City has properties at a total value of 27.6 Million so ~$240,000 in taxes a year. Out of 24.69 acres/

Two homes in this area are for sale right now. One for $1,260,000 & one for $680,000. The expensive one is what happened when this house was torn down. The other one is 3,000 sqft split level built in 1958. It was sold for $632,000 in 2017.

And to add, it looks like that home was torn down and then split, so there will be another new home new it shortly I guess.

In this general area have been a couple homes that have sold “recently” according to zillow. It looks like 8 homes (& a lot from that lot split for $165,000). The cheapest was $380,000. Check out the description. Sold as partially renovated. I guess buyer added a story.In this general area have been a couple homes that have sold “recently” according to zillow. It looks like 8 homes (& a lot from that lot split for $165,000). The cheapest was $380,000. Check out the description. Sold as partially renovated. I guess buyer added a story.

Okay last area, the R-4 really low density area. 30.7 acres. 45,100,000 in assessed value ($406,000 a year in property tax) over 73 properties on an average of 0.37 acres.

This area only has one home for sale currently. If you have $1,825,000 all 7,022 square feet can be yours! All that and no sidewalks. Can you imagine paying that much to not have a sidewalk? Has bike lanes though, so that is something

There is a spread of prices for recently sold homes. Check out the high ones. $1,100,000 & $1,080,000 & $800,000

& $1,000,000 & $1,400,000 & $850,000 and a bad pictures of $783,000 house sold in 2016

On the lower end 1 says sold for $100,000! Looks like big (4,000+ sqft) for that price. Had pending sale for $1,099,000 in 2017, so I guess the data just got mixed up.

Another 1 says sold for $40,000 in 2016 (also says sold for $245,000 in 2002). Gmaps only has 2016 street views. But, Imaps says sold for $1,300,000 in 2018. I am thinking this little home is not longer there.

Okay, there was a house sold in the $300,000. Home has gravel driveway, from 40s & small ~1000 sqft and probably a fixer upper. Good on whoever bought this! Most affordable thing in the neighborhood!

Here is one sold for $400,000 that has less than perfect curb appeal. Imaps says it was last sold (as vacant land?) in the 70’s. So maybe not a real sale? Other than that there are 7 homes sold in the $500s and $600s from the 80s or earlier.

Take what you will from this thread, but neat to see how one area has a lot of tax producing townhomes that would be on the lower end $$wise of the area right next to them, which has SFH only zoning & is slowly morphing into mansion built on teardowns. Just 1 mile apart

John · May 4, 2019, 8:34pm

This is absolutely my favorite part of the building! Bring on the tax revenue!

John · May 4, 2019, 8:41pm

My brother used to live in those old apartments. They were garden style, small, old and cheap. They didn’t use the land very efficiently either. I don’t know the total number of units, but I do know that the tax value to the city compared to what’s there now would be a drop in the bucket.

ADUsSomeday · May 4, 2019, 9:02pm

And it would have even been better if we had allowed Townhomes or an incremental step up in density like a 3 or 4 story apartment (maybe a few of those)! But, I generally agree with you that the new development is a tax and density increase over the past. It is just indicative of the way Raleigh is doing that which is to keep the sacred Single Family Zones untouched by density changes while only allowing density where we already comparatively have some. Then we just build denser single family homes (face-palm).

John · May 5, 2019, 2:10am

I’d add that it’s single family dense development at the top end of the market.

ADUsSomeday · May 7, 2019, 11:07pm

South Central CAC
Going to take a look at the South Central CAC new homes in 2018. This CAC is a contrast to the 5-points CAC (last 1 I looked at). The new homes in South Central were 58% less expensive than the ones in 5
points. $438,000 vs $1,046,000. But, that $400k feels high for area.

The CAC is S. of New Bern, does not quite make it to 440. Mostly West of Raleigh Blvd, & generally East of East St, but makes it over to Hammond Rd in the west. Transfer Co is just barely in. Roberts Park & part of Chavis park are in. Walnut Creek Wetland center in there too.

South Central has a little over 2000 properties in ~988 acres. Not the smallest, but a pretty small CAC. I found 2,188 units w/ 59.28% Single Family Homes.

You find really interesting stuff looking through the rare building types. Apparently there is a 4 unit apartment in this “STOR/APT” on Rock Quarry Rd.

When I looked through zillow for built in 2018 I found 35 SFHs & 1 Townhome. 8 where pure infill, 20 where tear down 1-for-1, and 8 where tear down a duplex and build a SFH. So the CAC did not actually add any units. This is pretty messed up when you think about it.

I guess on the positive side 36 units is only 1.6% of the units. But, for 1.6% of the units in South Central someone of a lower income was replaced with someone who can afford a more expensive SFH! Not a good trend for a city w/ a growing population & housing pressure.

The duplex replacement is a big example of this. These all happened on Postell St. Here is a street view of the duplex’s that were there before, & then you can see the SFH’s that replaced them. These are just south of Hunter Elementary.

These duplex’s being replaced by $400,000 Single Family Homes is a way bigger deal than the town-homes built next to Transfer C.o. Town-homes were high $400 to ~$620,000 & more people see them & think that is crazy for the neighborhood. But, no homes were torn down to build them

ADUsSomeday · May 7, 2019, 11:12pm

There were 6 infill SFHs. & to be honest. This is the best of the worst. Nothing good really happened in the South Central in 2018 if you care about the housing supply flexing for different types of homes for all types of people. If you want a ~$400,000 SFH OK, all else NO.

Looks like a big old honking house. Then I think about how it would be the smallest new home in the Gleenwood CAC. Crazy world we live in. Here are more of the infill aka, no one was directly displaced, homes.

Sometimes I hear that if we allow for smaller lots then lots will be split & older homes will torn down. Currently, for every lot splits that happens we have about ~17 times that a SFH is just torn down & replaced by a bigger single family home without a lot split. Ex. in pics

There is a strange buy two homes, tear them down, then build two new homes in the same place thing going on in South Central CAC.

There is also a trend of building houses that really look like they could be nice duplexes, but they are not & it makes me sad. <again these are all 1 for 1 re-placers, but I am just going to show the new house to save (my) time.

I also realized that I was wrong about this home on S. Bloodsworth St. thinking the building (still standing) next to it was torn down. It was infill and I had it as a 1-for-1 replacement. looks like nothing was there back to 2007

So that is what happened to the South Central CAC in 2018. Only SFHs built, they are expensive compared to everything else around because that is how new Single Family Home work. and the old homes torn down made it a new zero increase in # of people who could live there.

The day after I posted this on Twitter the New York Time printed an article on South Park which is mostly in this CAC.

ADUsSomeday · May 7, 2019, 11:18pm

Not a new home, but there is an honest to goodness Fourplex for sale in the South Central CAC right now. Was built in 1950 & the sales price makes is $125,000 per unit. Would be cool if 4 families or single people got together and bought it, then made each unit a condo.

Looking through an excel sheet of all the units in the South Central CAC that I downloaded from Imaps, I noticed that there is only 1 condo in all of South Central. It is a really neat place called The Villas At State Street. https://thevillasatstatestreet.com/

Two of them are for sale right now. They are on the smaller side at 700sqft, but nice places with 2 bed a 1 bath. I really like these because they are such a good example of an OPTION. Big old SFH’s are not for everyone, & cost more for sure https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/house,condo,apartment_duplex,mobile,townhouse_type/2087705751_zpid/globalrelevanceex_sort/35.766289,-78.619875,35.760596,-78.629102_rect/16_zm/ …?

Here is a promotional video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y9gctMWzIjo … They say built in 1984, but the quartz counter tops say remodeled in the last ~8 years. 2nd video https://vimeo.com/311511518 Looks like 34 units in about 3.8 acres. These would be nice in my neighborhood.

Another neat building is on Coleman St. Classified as a Garden Apartment with 18 units. Owned by the city so maybe some type of affordable housing? Build in 2014. Since 2008, this building and two duplex’s are the only non SFH stuff build in South Central.

Welp, looks like even this building just replaced a 12 unit apartment, so it was just a gain of 4 units. Old one was built in 1984.

These two three units from 2008 are…something, you have to put some windows or something toward the street. Without needing parking in the back could have a cool courtyard. Kind of impressed they were actually built though. Feels like a hard thing to finance.

There seems to be a secret Davy Ln. back there to get to the parking. Which is also the "street’ in front of the other 4-plex for sale right now. That is neat.

Here is the oldest home in the South Central CAC. Only one from the 1800s (1891). It is right behind Transfer Co. It is owned by the city of Raleigh.