NC was said to have grown about 100,000 from 2019 to 2020, but was overestimated somewhere by way over a 100,000 throughout the course of the decade. I wonder how much of that was shrinking counties in the hinterlands?
Now Raleigh-Cary automatically need to merge with the Durham-Chapel Hill metro, because this campus will be in the Wake County side. But not just that it will have increased connectivity cause we share RTP with Durham and thatâll bring the cross connectivity cap they need to merge at the target. Now it time Raleigh and Durham officials put there differences aside and get this done. Btw I think an expert after we were rejected Amazon said the the two metro differences were the reason why.
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Been thinking about this since yesterdayâs announcement that NCâs yearly estimates were overstated running up to the 2020 Census. It makes me think that one or more of the following will be reflected in the more detailed data:
- Charlotte/Mecklenburg growth has been overstated
- Raleigh/Wake growth has been overstated
- Declining counties across the state have declined even more than previously projected
With the Charlotte and Triangle area producing the lionâs share of NCâs growth, itâs easy to imagine that their numbers were inflated. It could be one metro or the other, or both. Back in 2010, the big shock was how much Atlanta proper had been greatly over-estimated in the years prior to that Census. Raleighâs projected growth in the 2010s was much slower than in previous decades, and I hope that its numbers werenât overstated. The estimate was that Raleigh added just over 70,000. On the other hand, Charlotteâs estimates were quite large between 2010 and 2019: adding over 154,000 to its city proper. Then again, Charlotte also has more than twice the land area of Raleigh.
Wake and Mecklenburg combined contributed approximately 400,000 to the 2010-19 state projections. If anywhere was overestimated, itâs likely these two counties. I wonder how much response rate mattered in this last Census? From what I remember, the participation wasnât stellar. I realize that there are normalizing formulas that they use, but stillâŚ
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Not a census expert here by ANY MEANS. But if they can tell us the overall totals for each state and who gets more representatives and who loses them, why in the world canât they reveal that same day exact totals of how many are in each city and county in NC? I mean adding all that up gets the total they reported. So either they have the numbers ready all at once, or they donâtâŚam I missing something?
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Like a good film, there always has to be a sequel.
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WRAL article mentions more people moved to the Triangle in 2020 than 2019. What I found most interesting was that they mention DTR saw a slight drop in population, as more people moved to âsemi-ruralâ areas. Preferring the green, open space. https://www.wral.com/in-quest-for-space-more-people-moved-to-the-triangle-in-2020-than-the-year-before/19650560/
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Lots of people fled cities, especially huge, dense ones, at the beginning of COVID to be away from people. I think that trend will just be a 1-2 year thing.
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Also think this is a factor from people working from home. No longer needing to be located walking distance to work. Also DTR has had an insane growth of real estate value and rental rates, probably pushing people out.
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I wonder if the slight drop of DT residents can be attributed to the colleges going online and students moving home to their parentsâ houses elsewhere?
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The article states 2 out of every 1,000 people who live downtown have relocated. According to DRA in 2020 11,820 residents live downtown, that comes out to less than 24 people. I wouldnât come close to even considering that a âtrendâ and once you add the 3 large units delivered in 2021(Peace, Line, & Fairweather) we have already recouped those 24 residents and then some.
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Thatâs a negligible blip for sure! Thanks for sharing.
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Lots of new people moving into the Line at the moment. I walk past that to get to Publix every other day.
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It stated per 1,000 living in the city, not downtown. It also misrepresented the %âs coming from other cities in the following quote, as they seem to be % increases YoY. So I wouldnât put too much into this solely based on the article.
âNew York ranks third among place people left to relocate to the Triangle. About 30% of those who moved to Raleigh and Cary came from Rocky Mount; Los Angeles (26.5%), Durham-Chapel Hill (21.4%) and Philadelphia (20%) round out the top five.â
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Yea WRAL has poor proofreading, itâs a word-salad but it says downtown.
âThe data shows downtown Raleigh lost about 2 people out of every 1,000 living in the city. Semi-rural areas saw the most growth, gaining about 6 new residents per 1,000.â
Yeah, I read that as: Downtown lost 2 people per 1000 people living in the entire city, not as downtown lost 2 people per 1000 living downtown. So your 24 people lost estimate, I read as somewhere around 900 people lost.
Whatever they meant, they really have a non-linear way about conveying data.
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With new delivery and occupancy of apartments being continuous and uninterrupted, I have a hard time believing that DT proper lost 900 residents. That makes zero sense.
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Putting in an article that downtown lost 24 people also doesnât make sense. My point was that itâs not the best source to get stats or data from, because the article was all over the place.
Journalism being bad quality lately?
SHOCKER
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https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2021-citylab-how-americans-moved/?srnd=citylab&sref=0IejgNtz
interesting story and data about migration during covid.
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I think that these are the Raleigh MSA 2020 estimate numbers by MSA & by County
Raleigh-Durham-Cary CSA 2,117,636 (up 35,051)
Raleigh MSA 1,420,376
Franklin Co. 71,859
Johnston Co. 216,246
Wake Co. 1,132,271
Mecklenburg Co. for reference: 1,128,945
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